Domestic Companies' Export Expectations for Q2 This Year Reach Highest Level in 11 Years

Trade Association International Trade and Commerce Research Institute Survey
Export Industry Business Sentiment Index (EBSI) Surpasses '120' Again Since Q2 2010

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Heung-soon] The Export Business Survey Index (EBSI), which reflects the expectations of our companies for export conditions in the next quarter, surpassed 120 for the first time in 11 years, reaching a record high.

According to the "2021 2nd Quarter Export Industry Business Survey" announced on the 21st by the Korea International Trade Association's International Trade and Commerce Research Institute, which surveyed and analyzed 945 domestic export companies, the EBSI for the 2nd quarter of this year was 120.8, exceeding 120 for the first time since the 2nd quarter of 2010 (128.4), and it is expected that exports in the 2nd quarter will continue to show a favorable trend. When the EBSI exceeds 100, it is considered that export conditions will improve compared to the present.

By product category, exports in the 2nd quarter are expected to increase for petroleum products (148.9), semiconductors (139.5), ships (138.6), and plastic and rubber products (131.5), reflecting rising oil prices and the outlook for global demand recovery. In addition, among the 15 major product categories including these items, the index for 14 categories exceeded 100, showing a positive outlook for future export conditions in most industries.

In the case of wireless communication devices and parts (90.0), since domestic and global companies launched new products in the 1st quarter, resulting in a significant increase in exports of finished products and related parts, the export growth rate is expected to slow relatively in the 2nd quarter.

By item, export consultations (121.9), export country economies (121.3), and export contracts (112.6) are expected to improve, which the institute analyzed as reflecting expectations for economic recovery in major countries and revitalization of exports due to COVID-19 vaccine distribution. On the other hand, the "manufacturing cost of export products" (92.1) is expected to worsen slightly compared to the previous quarter due to the recent sharp rise in raw material prices.

The most frequently cited export difficulty factor by companies for the 2nd quarter was "raw material price increase" (21.0%), followed by "logistics cost increase" (20.3%) and "won exchange rate volatility expansion" (12.5%).

Researcher Do Won-bin of the Trade Association said, "The index exceeding 120 is a very positive signal for export recovery," adding, "Although uncertainties due to rising raw material prices remain, our exports are expected to show a favorable trend in the 2nd quarter, supported by global economic recovery and increased demand following COVID-19 vaccine distribution."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.