[Unification Politics] Swing Voters and Justice Party Support Shift to Conservatives: "If We Fight Too Much, We All Perish"

Expanding Beyond the 'Concrete' Base: The Key to Broadening the Middle Ground

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] Unification does not simply mean the sum of the support rates of the two candidates. The reason why the opposition parties are putting their lives on unification ahead of the Seoul mayoral by-election involves a somewhat more complex calculation than it appears.

First, it is unusual that supporters of the Justice Party are included among the ‘unification voters’ in this election. The Justice Party did not field a candidate due to the aftermath of the party leader’s sexual harassment incident. The party’s fixed support rate is about 5%. Where are these votes likely to go?

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Win-G Korea Consulting on June 6-7 for Asia Economy targeting Seoul citizens, 23.2% of Justice Party supporters identified Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party candidate, as the suitable figure. This is understandable given that they are part of the progressive bloc. However, how should we interpret the fact that 29.1% of Justice Party supporters chose Ahn Cheol-soo, the People’s Party candidate? They also gave 13.3% support to Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate. At first glance, this can be interpreted as partly reflecting aversion to the sexual scandal involving the late Park Won-soon, former Seoul mayor. This ‘unexpected situation’ has emerged as the biggest variable in unification for this election.

Meanwhile, 18.6% of respondents were non-affiliated or did not know their preferred party. Among them, 31.1% supported candidate Ahn, 30.0% supported candidate Oh, and Park received only 8.3%. Although the Democratic Party leads the People Power Party in party support rates in Seoul polls, the Democratic Party’s candidate Park is struggling. The unification issue has inevitably appeared in this election as well, and the conservative opposition sees it as a winning card considering this public sentiment. It is because the effect of isolating the Democratic Party’s support base is clearly visible.

In the Korean political landscape, the fixed support bases of the Democratic Party and the People Power Party show a so-called ‘concrete’ pattern around 30%. It has long been considered a basic condition for victory to expand into the middle ground, called the ‘floating layer.’ However, conservatism appears to have shrunk somewhat since former President Park Geun-hye’s state affairs manipulation scandal, and the third-party area has relatively expanded. The fact that former lawmakers Na Kyung-won and Lee Eon-ju, perceived as ‘hardline conservatives,’ were eliminated during the People Power Party primary is also significant.

Regarding suitability for the conservative opposition unification candidate, 37.1% of the non-affiliated group chose candidate Ahn, and 29.5% chose candidate Oh. Recent other polls have shown this gap widening to about 20%. Candidate Ahn emphasizes his high support from the non-affiliated as his greatest weapon of ‘winnability.’ Candidate Oh focuses on ‘suitability,’ leveraging the concentrated preference of People Power Party supporters. The insistence on including some landline telephone surveys, which tend to reflect conservative votes more, is in the same context. Since both sides judge their support bases to be close, they have no choice but to pay more attention to the details of the polls.

With the speculative scandal involving some employees of the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) also breaking out, for the two candidates in a more advantageous position, unification negotiations may be considered more important than the main election. On the other hand, the unification process between the Democratic Party and the Open Democratic Party, which appear to be ‘from the same household,’ did not create much resonance. Now, the key is whether the conservative opposition’s unification will be seen as a ‘beautiful unification’ or a ‘bitter fight,’ as the effect may vary accordingly.

Hong Hyung-sik, director of Hangil Research, said, “Unification is not simply the sum of numbers but should create synergy, and if done incorrectly, it could even cannibalize votes,” adding, “Looking at the conservative opposition unification process, they do not seem cautious or respectful toward each other. It would be unwise to expect only a spillover effect from the LH scandal.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.