[Politics, That Day...] I Am the Main Character of the Blue House... The Era of Gunwoonghalgeo (群雄割據)

Reviewing May 2016 Presidential Election Polls... Ahn Cheol-soo, Moon Jae-in, and Oh Se-hoon Leading the Race
Ahn Cheol-soo Dominates Honam, Hong Joon-pyo's Presence Weak, Kim Moo-sung's Support Declines... Significant Differences from Final Results One Year Before Election Day

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, On That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

The next presidential election scheduled for March 9, 2022, is now less than a year away. Major presidential candidates are forming full-fledged ‘camp’ systems. After the April 7 by-elections, a ‘presidential election wind’ is expected to strike the political scene strongly.

One year is a long time in Korean politics because it is impossible to know when and how major issues that can shake public opinion will erupt. This is also why one cannot be swayed by the current presidential election poll ratings. Those ahead cannot be complacent, and those trailing should not be discouraged yet.

This can be seen from the situation one year before the last presidential election. According to a Gallup Korea poll conducted from May 10 to 12, 2016, surveying 1,005 people aged 19 and older nationwide, the results differed significantly from the actual election outcome. (For detailed information on Gallup Korea polls, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

Gallup Korea conducted monthly polls asking who the ‘next presidential candidate’ would be. The May 10-12, 2016 poll was about one year before the presidential election held on May 9, 2017. The preference ratings for the next political leader at that time were ▲Ahn Cheol-soo 20%, ▲Moon Jae-in 18%, ▲Oh Se-hoon 9%, ▲Park Won-soon 6%, ▲Kim Moo-sung 5%, ▲Yoo Seung-min 3%, ▲Lee Jae-myung 2%, ▲Sim Sang-jung 1%.

Politicians Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in formed the leading group, but there was no overwhelming figure, marking an era of ‘warlords’ in the presidential election landscape. Analyzing the poll results reveals some interesting points.

The 5th TV debate held on the 28th at MBC in Sangam-dong, Seoul

One year before the last presidential election, the public sentiment in Honam had shifted toward politician Ahn Cheol-soo. In that poll, support in Honam was 33% for Ahn Cheol-soo and 25% for Moon Jae-in. Only these two politicians had over 5% support in Honam.

At that time, it was right after the 20th general election, and the People’s Party led by Ahn Cheol-soo was shaking the political landscape. Especially, the People’s Party overwhelmed the Democratic Party in Honam. Considering the presidential election support and Honam’s public sentiment, politician Ahn Cheol-soo was in a position to dream ‘big dreams.’

Another characteristic of the Gallup Korea poll results was that although names like Oh Se-hoon, Kim Moo-sung, and Yoo Seung-min appeared among the next presidential candidates of conservative parties, politician Hong Joon-pyo’s name was absent. Hong Joon-pyo was the Liberty Korea Party’s presidential candidate in May 2017, but one year earlier, his presence was minimal.

This is why it is premature to judge that the political landscape will be determined solely by the poll results one year before the presidential election.

Another feature was the decline in presence of politician Kim Moo-sung, who had consistently recorded over 10% support until March 2016 and was recognized as the leading figure of the conservative party.

Politician Kim Moo-sung had been in the leading group of next presidential candidates until December 2015. However, in the Gallup Korea poll one year before the election, he remained at 5%. Kim Moo-sung was the political leader of the largest faction in the ruling Saenuri Party at the time, but the drop in support was a painful result.

The D-1 year before the last presidential election was very different from other elections. Although May 2016 was technically the D-1 year point, politicians at the time thought the election was more than 1 year and 6 months away.

This was because it was impossible to predict the National Assembly’s approval of the impeachment motion against then-President Park Geun-hye in December 2016, the Constitutional Court’s acceptance of the impeachment in March 2017, and the unprecedented early presidential election in May 2017.

The aftermath of the presidential impeachment and early election fundamentally reshaped the political landscape. The D-1 year poll before the last presidential election ultimately became just a reference. The dynamism of Korean politics has the power to reorganize the basic order anew.

The old saying in Yeouido politics, ‘Politics is like a living organism,’ still holds true. This is also why presidential candidates trailing in current polls can nurture dreams of becoming the occupant of the Blue House through a ‘turnaround game.’

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.