Agreement on Defense Cost-Sharing Negotiations... Is There a Theory of U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Korea?

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As South Korea and the United States have reached an agreement on defense cost-sharing, the controversy over the withdrawal of US Forces Korea (USFK) is expected to subside somewhat. Former US President Trump had previously mentioned the possibility of withdrawing USFK while raising the issue of “free-riding” regarding defense cost-sharing. However, since President Biden concluded the defense cost-sharing negotiations with the principle of “not exploiting allies,” the likelihood of related controversies reigniting has decreased.

Now, attention is focused on whether the phrase “maintain the current level of US Forces Korea,” which was deleted from the joint statement of the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM), will be included again or confirmed with new wording.

First, inside and outside the military, the prevailing assessment is that the swift resolution of the defense cost issue under the Biden administration will serve as a catalyst to strengthen the South Korea-US alliance. When former President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Germany’s defense spending and announced a reduction of US forces in Germany, concerns about the reduction of USFK were widespread.

For now, it is understood that some of these concerns have been alleviated with the conclusion of the defense cost-sharing negotiations. The issue lies with the SCM joint statement. Regarding this, a military official said on the 10th, “Continuous negotiations and dialogue between South Korea and the US are necessary.”

The omission of the phrase “maintain the current level of US Forces Korea” from the SCM joint statement is due to the US concept of Dynamic Force Employment (DFE). The DFE concept is an evolution of the “Global Defense Posture Review” (GDPR) introduced by the Bush administration in 2004. GDPR is a concept that withdraws forward-deployed forces in Europe and other regions back to the US mainland, rotates forces stationed in the US mainland, and operates globally with strategic flexibility. During this adjustment process, the number of troops in specific commands may decrease or increase. The possibility of changes in the size of USFK reflects concerns that the fallout from this adjustment process could be unpredictable.

Meanwhile, there is interest in whether this issue will be discussed again at the SCM to be held in Seoul this October. Since it will be the first SCM after President Biden’s inauguration, there is a possibility of readjusting the phrase “maintain the current level of US Forces Korea,” which was deleted during former President Trump’s administration.

A military official commented on the outlook for this year’s SCM, saying, “Nothing has been finalized regarding the agenda between South Korea and the US, so it is difficult to make definitive statements about whether the USFK expression will be reinserted.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.