"Achieving Herd Immunity in November Likely Difficult... Vaccine Supply Is Key"

COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Begins
Experts' Recommendations

Excludes Children and Adolescents
Only 44 Million of Total Population

80% Vaccination Needed for Herd Immunity
Challenging Target to Achieve

Vaccine Supply Timing Must Be Accelerated

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporters Seo So-jeong and Lee Chun-hee] On the 26th, as the first COVID-19 vaccinations began in South Korea, experts expressed cautious optimism but emphasized that this is only the starting point. They warned that there is still a long way to go before herd immunity is achieved, and the threat of variant viruses remains, so vigilance must not be relaxed.

Choi Won-seok, Professor of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Ansan Hospital, said, "What matters more than the start is how many people get vaccinated and how effectively the vaccination proceeds. Today is just the starting point; the COVID-19 risk is not over." Lee Jae-gap, Professor of Infectious Diseases at Hallym University, also stressed the importance of the vaccination schedule that still has over nine months remaining, saying, "The era of vaccines has begun, but it is only the beginning, so we must not be complacent."

"Consistent Safety Messaging from Authorities Needed"

Many pointed out that public trust must be strengthened regarding variables in the vaccination process.

Jung Ki-seok, Professor of Respiratory Medicine at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital and former Director of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, said, "There is some anxiety about the government's decision to prioritize AstraZeneca vaccinations for those under 65, and reducing this anxiety is crucial going forward. Safety has already been verified, and based on overseas clinical results, doubts about efficacy should be dispelled so that many people can be vaccinated in a short time. The health authorities must deliver consistent messages."

Cheon Eun-mi, Professor of Respiratory Medicine at Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, said, "As vaccines with better efficacy are supplied later, some initial vaccine recipients may feel hesitant. For those vaccinated, incentives such as expanding private gathering limits from 5 to 10 people should be considered."

Professor Lee Jae-gap pointed out the important roles of the media and politics. He said, "Adverse reactions during vaccination are inevitable. Even if unexpected adverse reactions occur, if the media and political circles report or exploit these sensationally without clear evidence of causality with the vaccine, as happened with last year's flu vaccine, it could cause public anxiety about vaccines."

The increasingly aggressive variant viruses are also a significant variable. Professor Jung Ki-seok said, "While focusing on the UK, South African, and Brazilian variants, other variants continue to emerge, and responses may be insufficient. Since various variants have been reported in the US and Japan, we must enhance our ability to respond to variants considering the possibility of their domestic influx."

"Do Not Relax Vigilance in Quarantine"

On the 26th, Shin Jeong-sook, a caregiver at an elderly nursing center, received the first dose of the AstraZeneca (AZ) COVID-19 vaccine at the Geumcheon-gu Public Health Center in Seoul. Photo by Joint Press Corps

Experts forecast that the government's goal of completing vaccination for 70% of the population by September and achieving herd immunity by November is likely difficult to achieve.

Professor Jung Ki-seok analyzed, "With children and adolescents excluded from the vaccination target, the eligible population is only about 44 million. Herd immunity requires 80% of the eligible population to be vaccinated, which is a challenging number."

Professor Cheon Eun-mi emphasized, "Vaccine supply is key. Like Israel, where high-efficacy vaccines were administered in a short period, herd immunity can be achieved faster, so the supply schedule of secured vaccines should be advanced as much as possible."

Concerns were also raised about overestimating herd immunity. Professor Choi Won-seok explained, "The herd immunity the government refers to does not mean that current quarantine measures are unnecessary or that we return to pre-COVID-19 conditions. It means a level where infection risk is not completely gone and quarantine rules are not eliminated, but social and daily life become freer than now."

Professor Lee Jae-gap also said, "Herd immunity is a kind of campaign to increase vaccination rates. There are many variables in forming herd immunity, and reaching a 70% vaccination rate is just the starting point to attempt herd immunity."

Regarding social distancing, there was consensus that vigilance must not be relaxed even after vaccinations begin. Professor Cheon Eun-mi stressed, "Just because vaccinations have started, we must never relax quarantine vigilance. We must strictly follow quarantine rules when using multi-use facilities and refrain from travel and gatherings."

Professor Choi Won-seok advised, "If vaccinated, the risk decreases and worries lessen somewhat, but if cases still occur in the community, it is safer to maintain infection prevention measures such as wearing masks, hand hygiene, and social distancing."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.