Birth Rate Halves in Early 30s... Delayed Childbirth and Fewer Second Births Cause Decline

Statistics Korea Announces '2020 Birth and Death Statistics'

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] Last year, South Korea's total fertility rate remained in the 0 range for the third consecutive year, with the age at first childbirth increasing and the number of second and third children decreasing. Notably, the decline in births among women in their early 30s (ages 30-34), who account for about half of the country's births, was particularly pronounced. This raises the likelihood of a sharper 'population cliff' phenomenon, as the proportion of the working-age population (ages 15-64) rapidly decreases.

According to the provisional 2020 birth and death statistics released by Statistics Korea on the 24th, the fertility rate decreased across all age groups except for those in their 40s compared to the previous year. This decline was especially notable among women aged 30-34, who represent a significant share of births.

Fertility rates by age group of women. (Source: Statistics Korea)

The age-specific fertility rate, which indicates the number of births per 1,000 women in the relevant age group, was highest among women in their early 30s at 79 births, but this group also saw the largest decrease of 7.2 births compared to the previous year. Women in their late 30s had a rate of 42.3 births (-2.7), and those in their late 20s had 30.6 births (-5.1). Women in their early 40s had a rate of 7.1 births (+0.1).

Average Age of Women at Childbirth Trends. (Source: Statistics Korea)

The age at first childbirth increased while the number of firstborns decreased. The average maternal age at childbirth was 33.1 years, up 0.1 years from the previous year. The average ages for first, second, and third children were 32.3, 33.9, and 35.3 years, respectively, each rising by 0.1 years.

Birth rate proportion by age group of women. (Source: Statistics Korea)

The number of births among women in their early 30s was 119,000, accounting for 43.7% of the total 272,000 births. This means they represent about half of all births. The number of births in this group decreased by 12,000, which accounts for 40% of the total decline of 30,000 births.

The decline in births among women in their early 30s coincided with the trend of increasing maternal age. The proportion of mothers aged 35 and older rose to 33.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous year. This is interpreted as a natural outcome of delayed marriage age leading to older maternal age at childbirth.

Number of births by birth order. (Source: Statistics Korea)

The number of first, second, and third children also decreased. The number of firstborns was 154,000, down 14,000 (-8.5%) from the previous year. Second children numbered 96,000 (-13,000; -11.7%), and third or higher births were 23,000 (-3,000; -12.2%).

Comparison of Total Fertility Rates among OECD Member Countries. (Source: Statistics Korea)

Given this situation, South Korea's total fertility rate is among the lowest globally. As of 2018, the average total fertility rate among the 37 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) was 1.63. South Korea's rate was only 0.98, about half the average. In 2017, the average age at first childbirth in OECD countries was 29.1 years, whereas in South Korea it was 32.3 years.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.