[Presidential Election Jinx②] The Vast Political Ocean Even the 'People's Prosecutor' Could Not Cross

Yoon Seok-yeol, Rising as No.1 Opposition Presidential Candidate... Prosecutor-Origin Politicians' Challenge Exemplified by 'Hong Jun-pyo-An Dae-hee' Model

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's NoteWith 1 year and 1 month remaining until the 2022 presidential election, the top three candidates in the 'next presidential candidate' approval ratings are Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, and Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon. They each have backgrounds as a Gyeonggi Province governor, a prosecutor, and a prime minister, respectively. An interesting point is that since the introduction of direct elections in 1987, no president has come from the ranks of Gyeonggi Province governors, prosecutors, or prime ministers. This series of three articles diagnoses the 'presidential election jinx' surrounding the careers of Governor Lee Jae-myung, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, and Leader Lee Nak-yeon.

① The frequent visitor to the 'presidential election fortune-teller,' the Gyeonggi governor, and the strange 'Blue House compatibility'

② The vast political ocean even the 'People's Prosecutor' found hard to cross

③ The 'masters of administration' who shrink whenever standing on the presidential election track

[Image source=Yonhap News]

'Politician Hong Joon-pyo' is the most illustrious among prosecutors-turned-politicians. He served as the leader of the Grand National Party and the Liberty Korea Party and was twice elected as the governor of South Gyeongsang Province. He was the ruling party's candidate in the most recent 2017 presidential election.

When explaining Politician Hong Joon-pyo's background, it is worth considering whether to emphasize his career as a prosecutor or as a politician. This is because he was first elected to the National Assembly in 1996, 25 years ago. Politician Hong Joon-pyo's stature is built on his achievements as a politician.

Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, who is leading the opposition presidential candidate approval ratings, is a figure to watch. Yoon Seok-youl is classified as the opposition's presidential candidate regardless of his own will. Although he has never expressed an intention to enter politics, the public desires him to do so.

The commonality between Politician Hong Joon-pyo and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl is that they both expanded their public recognition during their time as prosecutors. However, it is difficult to directly apply the 'Hong Joon-pyo model' to the 'Yoon Seok-youl model' because their political warm-up processes differ. Politician Hong Joon-pyo challenged the presidential election after a sufficient preparation period, but if Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl chooses to run in the 2022 presidential election, securing enough time will be difficult.

Among prosecutors, there was a figure who attracted public attention comparable to Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl. That was former Supreme Court Justice Ahn Dae-hee, who served as head of the Supreme Prosecutors' Office Central Investigation Department. He earned the title 'People's Prosecutor' in 2004 by leading the investigation into illegal presidential election funds. At that time, he showed strong resolve by arresting key aides of the sitting president.

Having served as Seoul High Prosecutor and later as a Supreme Court Justice, he reached the pinnacle of his legal career. Political circles also showed interest. After a long wait, when he declared his political participation, he was even considered a figure who could shake up the presidential election landscape. However, the achievements of Prosecutor Ahn Dae-hee and the evaluation of Politician Ahn Dae-hee cannot be equated.

Politics is like navigating a vast ocean. Becoming a captain requires numerous preparations. The political challenge of the People's Prosecutor left only regrets. Former Supreme Court Justice Ahn Dae-hee ran as the Saenuri Party candidate in the Mapo-gu Gap district in the 2016 20th general election but lost with a low vote share of 33.2%. This was his first and last experience in a public election as a politician.

Politician Ahn Dae-hee was also a figure with expectations, but these differ from the expectations placed on Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl. Politician Ahn Dae-hee was regarded as a dark horse in the presidential race. Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl is evaluated as the opposition's alternative regardless of his own will. For someone who has spent most of his life as a prosecutor, politics is a challenging endeavor. While political participation depends on personal will, the times can also create opportunities.

If Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl is dreaming a 'big dream,' 2022 is an opportunity he cannot miss. If he plans for the future, no one knows when another chance will come. Considering that Politician Hong Joon-pyo became a member of the National Assembly in 1996 and only ran for president nearly 20 years later in 2017, it is unlikely that Yoon Seok-youl, who is past his sixties, can wait for a 'Hong Joon-pyo model.'

The environment the opposition faces is also a factor working in his favor. The main opposition party, the People Power Party, has yet to produce a clear presidential candidate. The approval ratings of politicians included in polls are only around 3-5%, which is relatively high. Politician Hong Joon-pyo, currently an independent, and Politician Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, have approval ratings surpassing those of People Power Party politicians.

Another variable is that opposition figures classified as presidential candidates have entered the April Seoul mayoral by-election. As time passes, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl’s political value may increase. The problem is that if he completes his two-year term as Prosecutor General and steps down in July, only eight months will remain until the next presidential election.

Considering the process of selecting a presidential candidate, the remaining time will be even shorter. If Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl chooses to enter politics, the preparation process will not be easy. The moment he sheds his prosecutor’s robe, he may face political attacks on a completely different level. Reviewing presidential election history since 1987, while a president from a lawyer background has emerged, no president has come from a prosecutor background.

In the most recent 2017 presidential election, Politician Hong Joon-pyo ran but was far from winning. Will Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl be the first to cross the Blue House threshold that no prosecutor has ever passed? Or will he continue on the path of a legal professional, keeping politics at arm’s length? His actions after July are a point of keen interest.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.