Is the Semiconductor 'Super Cycle' Starting... January DRAM Fixed Price Rebounds After 8 Months

[Asia Economy Reporter Suyeon Woo] DRAM prices have rebounded for the first time in eight months, raising expectations for the semiconductor 'super cycle.' Industry experts predict that with the continuous increase in demand for server and mobile DRAM and the intensifying supply shortage, a full-scale rise in DRAM prices will begin from the first half of this year.

According to market research firm DRAMeXchange on the 30th, the fixed average price of DRAM (PC DDR4 8Gb standard) in January this year was $3.00, up 5.26% from the previous month. This marks the first time in eight months since May last year that DRAM prices have shown an increase compared to the previous month.

DRAM prices rose to around $8 during the semiconductor industry's super cycle boom in 2017-2018. Afterwards, in 2019, prices sharply dropped to the high $2 range due to excess inventory from suppliers. Following 2019, despite the untact (contactless) demand surge caused by COVID-19, DRAM prices continued an overall downward trend last year due to a slowdown in server DRAM demand.

(Data from DRAMeXchange)

DRAM prices, which had been declining until the second half of last year, shifted in sentiment starting from the end of the year, mainly in the spot market. This was influenced by a power outage at Micron's Taiwan plant and a shortage of server DRAM, tightening supply and demand again. By the end of January, fixed prices recovered to the $3 range, recording a 5% increase from the previous month. This is the first time since April last year that DRAM fixed prices have surged more than 5% month-over-month.

The industry is also optimistic about the DRAM market this year, signaling positive prospects for domestic semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. On the 28th, Samsung Electronics stated in a conference call that the memory semiconductor market in the first quarter of this year is expected to improve overall due to the full-scale launch of new mobile products, increased data center purchasing demand, and expanded laptop demand for untact activities.

SK Hynix also forecasted in its earnings conference call on the 29th that demand for server DRAM products will increase due to new data center investments by global companies. Additionally, as 5G smartphone shipments, which had slowed due to COVID-19, increase, mobile DRAM demand is expected to remain high, while supply is projected to increase only moderately, potentially failing to keep up with demand.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.