[Friday Story] "4th Wave Coming in March-April"... Experts Warn

Gachon University Medical School Professor Predicts Epidemic Pattern
Up to 2,000 Daily Cases in Worst Case
Authorities Concerned About Vaccine and Quarantine Bottleneck

Citizens are lined up at a temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza on the 27th, where the number of new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), which had been showing a gradual decline, surged back to the mid-500s after ten days. According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, the number of new domestic COVID-19 cases increased to 559 as of midnight that day. A significant impact was caused by 100 people being simultaneously confirmed positive at TCS International School in Gwangsan-gu, Gwangju, an unlicensed educational facility operated by IM Mission./Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

COVID-19 vaccination will begin domestically starting next month. Is the end of COVID-19 finally within reach? No. Rather than an 'end,' the '4th wave' awaits us first. The light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel is visible far away, but we are still wandering in a cave where we cannot see even a step ahead.

"The immediate supply of COVID-19 vaccines is only enough to maintain the medical system and reduce deaths. It will take at least two quarters before enough doses are administered to weaken the outbreak, but before that, another major wave will come again."

Professor Jeong Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine warned that the 4th wave of COVID-19 will peak around March to April. The 3rd wave has not even ended yet. After a lull with daily confirmed cases ranging from 200 to 500, it is expected that during the 4th wave, the number of confirmed cases could exceed 2,000. Professor Jeong diagnosed, "After the 1st and 2nd waves, the daily confirmed cases during the lull were about 10 and 30, respectively. Since the number after the 3rd wave is higher, the 4th wave starting from this level will inevitably record more confirmed cases." ▶Related article on page 6

The government is also preparing quarantine measures based on similar projections. The health authorities are hesitant to lower social distancing levels prematurely, considering recent cluster infections centered around religious facilities and increased population movement during the Lunar New Year holiday. There is also concern that vigilance against COVID-19 may weaken after vaccinations begin. In particular, even if vaccinations start in February, there is worry about potential chaos if vaccine supply does not proceed smoothly as originally planned due to circumstances of the vaccine suppliers.

A senior government official stated, "Vaccines cannot be administered to many citizens immediately, and since two doses are required, it will take time to achieve herd immunity, yet vigilance against COVID-19 may sharply decline. Considering the vaccination situations in other countries, there is a possibility that vaccine supply may not be smooth in March to April, making this period a 'bottleneck' for vaccination and quarantine efforts."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.