Six Months of Disrupted Inter-Korean Communication... Is a Military Talk Possible?

[Asia Economy Military Specialist Reporter Yang Nak-gyu, Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The government, aiming to resume North Korea-U.S. talks by leveraging the momentum of the Joe Biden administration's inauguration, faces the immediate task of restoring military communications that have been cut off for six months. This is because holding military talks must precede moving toward high-level inter-Korean dialogue. Through this, discussions related to the ROK-U.S. joint military exercises, which will be the first hurdle for improving North Korea-U.S. and inter-Korean relations in the future, can also begin. However, given North Korea's current stance, the likelihood of this becoming a reality is currently considered low.

According to the military on the 22nd, North Korea has refused to connect military communications between the two Koreas since June last year, citing the issue of leaflet distribution aimed at North Korea. Before that, the communication rate between the two Koreas reached 95%. This refers to the rate at which, when a South Korean naval patrol vessel calls out "Hallasan," the North Korean patrol vessel responds with "Baekdusan." Although there is also occasional communication between the two Koreas, the connection remains cut off. Since North Korea severed the military communication network, military talks themselves have not been held. The two Koreas have not been able to schedule follow-up talks since the 10th General-level Meeting held on October 26, 2018, one month after signing the military agreement.

If North Korea resumes the military communication network following the U.S. administration change, discussions related to the ROK-U.S. joint military exercises scheduled for March could begin immediately. Regarding this, President Moon Jae-in stated at the New Year's press conference on the 18th that the issue of adjusting the ROK-U.S. joint military exercises could be discussed with North Korea. In response, the Ministry of National Defense said in a work report on the 21st that "if North Korea responds, the Inter-Korean Military Joint Committee can discuss the ROK-U.S. joint military exercises, etc." These statements are interpreted as based on Article 1, Paragraph 1 of the military agreement. This clause states, "Both sides agreed to activate the 'Inter-Korean Military Joint Committee' to consult on issues such as large-scale military exercises and military buildup aimed at the other side, and the cessation of reconnaissance activities against the other side."

Alongside efforts to restore inter-Korean dialogue channels, the government plans to focus on resuming North Korea-U.S. or North Korea-U.S.-South Korea talks. As soon as the Biden administration completes its diplomatic and security appointments, the government intends to engage in rapid high-level personnel exchanges for this purpose. First, Noh Kyu-duk, head of the Korea Peace Negotiations Division, will initiate communication aligned with the U.S. negotiation counterpart's appointment, followed by meetings between the foreign ministers of both countries, high-level ROK-U.S. consultations, and eventually a ROK-U.S. summit.

However, it is uncertain whether this series of government plans will proceed without resistance or conflict. Contrary to the government's plan to discuss the ROK-U.S. joint military exercises with North Korea, there are voices drawing a line, stating that joint exercises are a matter for ROK-U.S. consultation. The U.S. side is also known to have a strong perception that the joint exercises will proceed as scheduled, and if discussions are necessary, it is a matter for both countries to decide. Professor Kim Hyun-wook of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy said, "North Korea demanded the suspension of ROK-U.S. joint military exercises at the 8th Party Congress as a condition for resuming talks, but these are conditions difficult for the U.S. to accept," adding, "The government will try to open the door for North Korea-U.S. talks through the new Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong, as during the Trump administration, but it seems to be a difficult situation."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.