Uncertainty in Supply Timing and Quantity by COVID-19 Vaccine: The Biggest Variable

Discussion on Free Vaccination Implementation Fee Not Yet Concluded
Controversy Over Who Should Receive It If Introduced Simultaneously

[Asia Economy Reporters Seo So-jeong, Choi Dae-yeol] The government announced that it will begin COVID-19 vaccination in February and complete vaccinations for 10 million people in the first half of the year, aiming to vaccinate 36 million people by November, reaching a level sufficient for herd immunity.

Priority vaccinations will first target elderly residents in group facilities such as nursing hospitals and high-risk healthcare workers in nursing facilities. Vaccinations for seniors aged 65 and older will be completed in the first half of the year, and the target group will gradually expand to adults aged 50 to 64. However, the timing and supply volume of each vaccine remain uncertain, and discussions on budgets for vaccination implementation costs beyond vaccine costs must be finalized. If four or more types of vaccines are introduced simultaneously in the second half of the year, controversies may arise over who will receive which vaccine.

◆ Vaccine supply timing and COVID-19 outbreak situation as variables = Professor Ki Moran, a member of the Disease Control and Prevention Agency’s Vaccination Expert Committee and a professor at the National Cancer Center (Preventive Medicine), said in a phone interview with Asia Economy on the 12th, "If vaccine supply proceeds smoothly as planned after the third quarter domestically, vaccinations can be administered by age group without strictly prioritizing target groups or chronic disease status." However, she added, "The exact timing and quantity of Pfizer and COVAX Facility vaccine deliveries have not yet been confirmed." The government has announced plans to introduce Pfizer vaccines in the third quarter and COVAX Facility vaccines in the first quarter, but specific quantities by timing have not been disclosed.

The COVID-19 outbreak situation also emerges as a variable. Although the "third wave" has passed its peak and daily confirmed cases have decreased to the 400-500 range, cases could surge at any time, so minimizing this is a prerequisite for rapid vaccination. Professor Ki said, "The most important factor is the COVID-19 outbreak phase in the third quarter when domestic vaccinations will be concentrated." She added, "If many patients occur as in the third wave, gatherings themselves become infection factors, so vaccination speed will inevitably slow down." Concerns have been raised that large crowds at vaccination centers or medical institutions could lead to further spread of infection.

◆ Additional budget must be secured = The budget required to purchase COVID-19 vaccines and vaccinate up to herd immunity levels is estimated to exceed 2 trillion won at minimum. Based on contracts with the European Union (EU), purchasing the four types of vaccines (86 million doses) that the government has pre-purchased will cost more than 1.2 trillion won. Considering the yet undecided costs for vaccines from the COVAX Facility, the total is estimated to range from 1.27 trillion to 1.65 trillion won. This estimate only covers vaccine purchase costs.

Additionally, Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require ultra-cold storage and distribution, necessitating a separate supply chain, and about 250 vaccination centers must be established. The implementation cost for doctors administering injections is also significant. The recently announced implementation cost for this year’s vaccinations is 19,220 won per shot. Even if only half of the vaccinations for easier-to-distribute AstraZeneca and Janssen vaccines are administered at private medical institutions, the cost would be about 250 billion won. The government has decided that part of the implementation cost will be covered by health insurance. So far, the government has secured a budget of 1.2561 trillion won solely for vaccine purchase costs.

◆ Controversy over 'vaccine choice' = Since different vaccines are expected to be administered to prioritized groups at different times, there is potential for disputes over "vaccine choice." Some may want to receive the more expensive vaccines or those known to have better efficacy in published clinical trials. The government has stated that individuals cannot choose the type of vaccine. Given that vaccinations are nationwide and schedules must be tightly managed, decisions will likely be made collectively based on factors such as timing of introduction, transport and storage feasibility, and target groups.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.