Manufacturing Employment Growth Rate Hits 0% Era..."Future Job Changes"

Employment Information Service 'Mid- to Long-Term Labor Supply and Demand Outlook 2018~2028'
Overall Employment Growth Rate from 2023 to 2028 Expected at 0.2%
"Service Industry to Lead Economic Growth Instead of Manufacturing"
Job Creation Expected in Chemistry, Medical, and Electronics Related to the 4th Industrial Revolution

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bo-kyung] A recent study revealed that the number of employees in the manufacturing sector, which has played a central role in our economy, is expected to increase by only about 8,000 over five years from 2023 to 2028. Due to low birth rates and an aging population, the overall employment growth rate during this period is projected to be just 0.2% annually.

The Korea Employment Information Service announced this in its recently published report titled "Mid- to Long-term Labor Supply and Demand Outlook 2018-2028: Changes in the Future Job World."

According to the report, the total number of employed persons is expected to increase by approximately 240,000 over five years from 2023 to 2028. While employment grew by 1,041,000 from 2018 to 2023, the growth trend is expected to sharply decline thereafter. The annual average employment growth rate is projected to drop from 0.8% (2018?2023) to 0.2% (2023?2028), a decrease of 0.6 percentage points.

This is due to labor shortages caused by low birth rates and aging, coupled with a decline in the economically active population as the baby boomer generation becomes elderly.

The Employment Information Service stated, "As population growth slows, the labor force is also shrinking," adding, "The reduction in labor force inevitably becomes a factor hindering economic growth." It also predicted that from 2027, when about 7.2 million baby boomers reach age 65 or older, the population aged 15 to 64 will sharply decrease, leading to a decline in the number of employed persons.

Regarding manufacturing employment, the number is expected to reach 4,575,000 in 2028, an increase of only 8,000 compared to 4,567,000 in 2023. The annual growth rate of manufacturing employment, which increased by 0.3% annually from 2018 to 2023, is expected to be 0% from 2023 to 2028.

The Employment Information Service noted in the report, "Manufacturing faces increasing global economic uncertainties and slowing economic growth, so the outlook is not bright," adding, "Traditional manufacturing sectors such as textiles, clothing, leather consumer goods, and heavy industries like steel, automobiles, and shipbuilding are scheduled for structural adjustments to adapt."

However, the report forecasted that sectors within manufacturing related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterized by technological innovation and rapid growth, will continue to generate labor demand. It stated, "Manufacturing related to technological innovation will lead change by developing new materials with advanced technologies," and predicted that job opportunities are likely to arise in fields such as chemicals, medical and pharmaceuticals, and electrical and electronics.

In the service sector, employment growth is expected to be relatively more pronounced. The number of service sector employees is projected to increase by 1,452,000 from 19,959,000 in 2023 to 20,301,000 in 2028, maintaining an annual growth rate of 0.3% during this period.

The Employment Information Service stated, "While manufacturing growth is slowing due to domestic and international conditions, the service sector is expected to grow steadily," and predicted, "Service-related industries will replace manufacturing and drive economic growth." In fact, the service industry tends to expand more in developed capitalist countries.

Especially with rapid aging, public service sectors such as healthcare and social welfare services within the service industry are expected to see relatively large increases in employment. From 2018 to 2028, employment in social welfare services is projected to increase by 333,000, and in healthcare by 292,000.

Specific occupations expected to see significant job growth include management clerks (170,000), care and health services (147,000), social welfare workers (80,000), healthcare workers (74,000), nurses (72,000), and computer systems and software experts (58,000).

Jobs expected to see high demand due to scientific and technological advancements include data analysts, software and app developers, e-commerce specialists, and social media experts. Demand for experts who understand and utilize new technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data analytics, process automation, information security, and user experience is also expected to increase significantly.

The Employment Information Service stated, "Basic and simple tasks will decrease, while high cognitive abilities and advanced technical skills will be emphasized," adding, "Especially in social and emotional domains, more delicate cognitive abilities will be required."

It further suggested, "To prepare for changing jobs, various policy efforts must be supported," and recommended, "Instead of short-term training support, a systematic education system should be established to allocate capable personnel where needed."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.