WB "If COVID-19 Is Not Contained, Global Economic Growth Will Be Limited to 1.6%"

Warning of 'Pessimistic Scenario' Due to Rising Cases and Vaccine Supply Failure
Projected 4% Growth This Year... Experts Say "Rapid Vaccination Is the Top Priority"

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondents Baek Jong-min and Jang Se-hee] The World Bank (WB) has forecasted the global economic growth rate to be 4.0% this year. However, it warned that if the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) continues and vaccine supply and inoculation remain slow, the economic growth rate could be limited to the 1% range.

In the 'Global Economic Prospects' report released on the 5th (local time), WB presented this forecast and stated, "If vaccine distribution is delayed or citizens hesitate to get vaccinated due to concerns about side effects, the growth rate could be as low as 1.6%." The addition of this pessimistic scenario by WB seems to reflect concerns that although vaccination has started worldwide, including in the United States and the United Kingdom, the pace is not as fast as expected. In the U.S., 13 million doses of vaccine had been distributed nationwide by last week, but only about 4.2 million people had actually been vaccinated.

WB also revised down the potential growth rate for the next 10 years from 2.1% to 1.9%. It forecasted that the growth engine of the global economy will decline due to accelerated aging, productivity decline, and the added impact of COVID-19. WB stated, "The lost decade caused by COVID-19 will come sooner." Aihan Kose, Acting Vice President of WB, also expressed concern, saying, "Without substantial reforms, the global economy will show disappointing growth results over the next decade."

By region, advanced economies are expected to grow by 3.5% this year after contracting by -5.4% last year, while emerging and developing economies are forecasted to grow by 5.0% this year following a -2.6% contraction last year. By country, the U.S. growth rate is projected to rise from -3.6% last year to 3.5% this year, and China’s growth rate is expected to increase from 2.0% last year to 7.9% this year. The Eurozone and Japan are forecasted to grow by 3.6% and 2.5% respectively this year.

Experts unanimously agree that rapid vaccination is the top priority to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. Professor Eom Jung-sik of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gachon University Gil Medical Center said, "All vaccines have side effects," adding, "There is concern about whether severe side effects will occur, but we are in a situation where we must accept side effects and get vaccinated." He explained, "Since COVID-19 vaccines are a new type of vaccine, people can have sufficiently negative perceptions or resistance," emphasizing, "It is important to persuade people well to get vaccinated."

Professor Kim Sang-bong of the Department of Economics at Hansung University also added, "Economic growth rates can vary depending on the vaccination status not only in our country but also in other countries," and noted, "Uncertainty will remain until vaccination is completed."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.