WB, 4% Global Economic Growth This Year... "Possibility of a Lost Decade"

This Year's Growth Rate Forecast Slightly Lower Than Last Year's Announcement
5% Growth Possible with Faster Vaccine Distribution... May Drop to 1.6% if Delayed
Last Year's Growth Rate -4.3%... Worst Since World War II

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] The World Bank (WB) forecasted that the global economy will grow at a somewhat lower rate of 4% this year compared to previous estimates. There are also concerns that if the COVID-19 pandemic is not controlled, growth could be limited to 1.6%.

David Malpass, President of the World Bank
Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

On the 5th (local time), the WB announced its global economic outlook, projecting that the world economy will grow by 4.0% this year assuming widespread vaccine distribution.

This is 0.2 percentage points lower than the 4.2% growth forecast presented in June last year. The growth rate for next year is expected to be 3.8%.

The WB assessed last year's economic growth rate at -4.3%. Although this is an improvement from the -5.2% forecast in June last year, it remains the worst figure since World War II.

The WB judged that the global economy this year will be largely dependent on vaccine distribution and inoculation. If vaccine distribution is delayed, growth could be as low as 1.6%, but if vaccinations proceed rapidly, growth could reach up to 5%.

By region, advanced economies are expected to grow from -5.4% last year to 3.5% this year, while emerging and developing economies are projected to grow from -2.6% last year to 5.0%.

By area, East Asia and the Pacific, including Korea and China, are expected to record the highest growth rate at 7.4%.

By country, the United States is expected to rebound from -3.6% last year to 3.5% growth, the Eurozone from -7.4% to 3.6%, and Japan from -5.3% to 2.5%. China is projected to grow 7.9% this year following 2.0% growth last year. No forecast was mentioned for Korea.

The WB expressed concern that "low investment, low employment, and a shrinking workforce in many advanced countries will further worsen the slowdown in global growth over the next decade," warning that the pandemic could bring about a 'lost decade.'

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.