[Politics, That Day...] Seoul Mayor Election's 'Key to Victory' Held by 6-8 PM 'After-Work Voting'

2011 Seoul Mayor By-election, Voter Turnout Rises by 8.7% Points After 6 PM... Concentrated Voting After 7 PM

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

As of the 21st general election last April, the number of voters in Seoul was 8,477,244. Although the number of voters in Seoul is smaller than in Gyeonggi Province, its status as the ‘political number one district’ remains unchanged. Whether Seoul wins or loses in nationwide elections is crucial enough to determine the overall outcome. The conservative party has not been able to reclaim the Seoul mayoral seat for nearly 10 years since losing it in 2011.

What about the Seoul mayoral by-election scheduled for April 7? For the People Power Party and other opposition parties, it is an opportunity to recapture the Seoul mayoralty. It is also an important election for the Democratic Party of Korea. The Seoul mayoral by-election serves as a precursor to the presidential election. If the Democratic Party loses the Seoul mayoral seat, the possibility of regime continuation will inevitably decrease.

Analyzing historical voter turnout in Korean politics shows that large cities like Seoul generally have lower turnout compared to rural areas. This means that metropolitan governments with many rural areas tend to have relatively higher turnout, while large cities such as Seoul and Busan have lower turnout.

By-elections have even lower turnout compared to elections held on temporary holidays. By-elections are held on weekdays. April 7 falls on a Wednesday. Voting starts at 6 a.m., but most office workers find it difficult to vote in the morning due to work commitments. It is generally perceived that by-elections favor parties with strong support from the elderly rather than office workers.

However, the story changes when the ruling and opposition parties fiercely compete in a by-election. Although by-elections sometimes record low turnout of 20-30%, they can also achieve turnout rates comparable to general elections.

The Seoul mayoral by-election on October 26, 2011, is a case in point. The turnout then reached 48.6%. In comparison, the turnout for the Seoul mayoral election during the 4th nationwide simultaneous local elections in 2006, which was a temporary holiday, was 49.8%. This highlights how high the 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election turnout was.

The high turnout in the 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election was related to the election’s significance. The Seoul mayoral election result was seen as a precursor to the presidential election scheduled for the following year (2012). At that time, the Grand National Party won a landslide victory in major local government elections during the October 26 by-elections but lost the Seoul mayoral election to independent candidate Park Won-soon. It was an awkward scene to call it a victory. In fact, Hong Joon-pyo, then leader of the Grand National Party, described the by-election results as “neither a win nor a loss.”

The Grand National Party lost the Seoul mayoral election because more supporters of the opposing candidate (independent Park Won-soon) turned out to vote.

General elections and by-elections have different voting hours. During the 21st general election last April, voting closed at 6 p.m. The same applies to local and presidential elections. When 6 p.m. arrives, voting closes and major broadcasters release exit poll results.

However, by-elections continue voting after 6 p.m. Officially, voting closes at 8 p.m. The time between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. provides office workers an opportunity to exercise their voting rights.

8 p.m. is a sufficient time for most office workers to return home and vote, except for some who leave work late or live far away. Political parties preparing for the Seoul mayoral election cannot overlook this time because it is when a surge of voters participates.

Looking at the change in turnout between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. during the October 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election reveals this. Turnout, which was 39.9% at 6 p.m., rose to 48.6% by 8 p.m., an increase of 8.7 percentage points.

The turnout, which was at risk of remaining in the 30% range, soared close to 50%. The hourly turnout increase on election day was about 2-3% per hour, but between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m., it surged by 5.7 percentage points. This indicates that voter participation was concentrated during this time.

The variable in this Seoul mayoral election is the implementation of early voting. There was no early voting system during the 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election. The early voting system, which was fully introduced in the 2014 local elections, is now becoming established. In the 21st National Assembly election last year, 27% of Seoul voters participated through early voting.

Considering the number of early voters, the number of voters participating between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. on the Seoul mayoral by-election day may be relatively smaller compared to 2011. If this Seoul mayoral election unfolds as closely as political experts predict, the last-minute voting rush between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. could be a decisive factor in determining the outcome.

Both ruling and opposition parties are expected to encourage voter turnout during this time by heightening a sense of crisis among their supporters. The winning candidate will use this time for a ‘securing victory’ strategy, while the trailing candidate will mobilize all remaining resources for a ‘comeback’ during the two hours after work on election day.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.