Rapid Increase in COVID-19 Critical Patients and Deaths Expected to Accelerate Further

Authorities Issue Administrative Order to Secure ICU Beds
Transfer and Referral of Existing Patients Take Over Three Days
Over 3,000 COVID-19 Cases Aged 50+ Confirmed in Past Week
Severe Cases Face Bed Shortages, Delaying Timely Treatment

On the 20th, when the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 reached 1,097, the highest ever since the outbreak in the country, citizens waiting to be tested visited a temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporter Choi Dae-yeol] The primary goal of the quarantine authorities is to minimize casualties, specifically deaths. If it is impossible to end the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the system to keep the epidemic scale as small as possible and to timely treat infected patients to recovery must be maintained properly.

The reason the third wave is considered dangerous is that the number of patients has surged rapidly in a short period, causing the treatment system to malfunction. Signs of medical system collapse are emerging everywhere, such as patients dying at home while waiting for hospitalization after testing positive or dying during transfer. It is possible to immediately secure facilities like dormitories or training centers to isolate asymptomatic or mild patients. However, patients with worsened symptoms require intensive care in isolated beds with multiple medical staff involved.

Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (second from left) is receiving a status briefing from Hospital Director Kim Byung-geun during an on-site inspection of COVID-19 hospital beds at Bakae Hospital in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, on the morning of the 19th.

The shortage of intensive care unit (ICU) beds has been a concern since the early stages of the third wave in mid-last month, but there has been little change even after about a month. The number of ICU beds dedicated solely to COVID-19 patients increased from 140 to 252, an increase of over 100 beds in a month. However, ICU beds for patients with other diseases decreased from 405 to 321. As a result, the total number of ICU beds increased by less than 30 over the month.

In May, the government planned to prepare 83 nationally designated inpatient treatment beds across 17 medical institutions nationwide with budget support, but more than half a year later, none have been completed. Experts and quarantine authorities anticipated a resurgence spreading during the winter season at the end of the year, but efforts to secure beds were neglected. When cooperation requests at the central or local government level proved difficult, administrative orders were issued to public hospitals and tertiary general hospitals equipped with facilities and personnel to provide beds, but even this is not easy to prepare within a day or two. Patients currently admitted to existing ICU beds also require intensive care due to severe illnesses, so transfer and referral procedures inevitably take several days.

On the 20th, when the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 reached 1,097, marking the highest number since the outbreak in the country, citizens who visited the temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza were waiting to get tested. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

278 Critically Ill Patients, Double-Digit Daily Deaths
3,008 Confirmed Cases Aged 50 and Above in the Past Week
Over 140 New ICU Patients Expected

The problem lies ahead. Since mid-this month, the number of confirmed cases has surged, and elderly or patients with underlying conditions typically worsen after about five days to a week and receive treatment for nearly a month. It is estimated that nearly half of elderly or underlying condition patients who deteriorate to critical condition die. Since the trends of new patients, critically ill patients, and deaths show similar patterns with a lag of about one week to one month, the increase in critically ill patients and deaths is likely to accelerate. According to authorities, as of the 20th, there are 278 critically ill patients. Most are elderly, but recently, young patients in their 20s and 30s have also started to appear one by one.

According to authorities, 3,008 confirmed cases aged 50 and above were reported in the past week (December 13?19). Considering the ICU incidence rate by age group, about 141 additional ICU patients are estimated to occur. Even if some existing patients die or recover and free up ICU beds, more than 100 ICU beds will be needed this week alone. In Seoul, where the number of patients is highest, there have been no ICU beds available for several days, and only three beds remain in Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, which share beds. In Gyeonggi Province, when ICU patients arise, due to a shortage of nearby beds, patients are transported to other regions such as Daejeon and Cheonan.

Since ICU patients require prompt treatment, even if beds are secured from tertiary general hospitals, it is expected to take more than three days, increasing concerns about casualties. The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters recently announced plans to secure 55 ICU and semi-ICU beds last week and add 300 more by early next year, but it will inevitably take a few more days for frontline sites to feel the impact.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.