[Lee Jong-gil's Autumn Return] Professional Baseball Trapped in the 'Truth Illusion Effect'

Kiss Ro Baseball Specialist Reporter 'Inside Game'
Repeated Blind Faith and Reproduction of Incorrect Knowledge in the Data Baseball Era
Analyzing Causes and Finding Solutions for Wrong Decisions in Major League Baseball
'Illusory Truth Effect' Offers Lessons Not Only for Baseball but Also for Modern Society

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In modern baseball, data is the fundamental foundation. It is used as a metric to correct bad habits and analyze opponents. With the integration of sabermetrics and Statcast, its importance has grown even more. It complements the shortcomings of basic stats like wins, ERA, and batting average to minimize confusion and errors. It even analyzes baseball myths that have been misquoted over time, helping to break free from indiscriminate obsession.

The U.S. Major League Baseball is the epicenter of the stat revolution, based on vast amounts of data. Intuition or guesswork no longer dominate decision-making processes. Even now, teams crave more data.

Keith Law worked as a special assistant to the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, overseeing stat analysis before becoming a baseball journalist. In his first book, Smart Baseball, he emphasized referencing existing stats but warned against blind faith. He predicted, "The development of stats and the progress they will show in the future can change baseball for several more years." "It will influence many people in various forms, including scouts discovering talent, players on the field, and journalists selecting Hall of Fame inductees."

The reason he sees great room for development is that not all decisions are yet made rationally based on data. Even to the average baseball fan, many decisions appear absurd. Teams sign free agents (FA) with huge sums of money or use the wrong players in critical moments that decide games. Many still rely on baseless baseball myths. A representative example is the "lineup protection" effect.

Lineup protection is the concept that if a strong hitter is placed in the next spot in the batting order, the preceding batter benefits. The idea is that opposing pitchers, to avoid facing a strong hitter in a high-pressure situation, will challenge the batter before the strong hitter, increasing the chance of throwing a hittable pitch. For example, this logic suggests that players like Jo Yong-ho and Hwang Jae-gyun, who bat ahead of this year’s top professional hitter Mel Rojas Jr., likely saw more hittable pitches. Conversely, if a weak hitter follows a strong hitter, the opposing pitcher is said to avoid the strong hitter.

Lineup protection has been refuted for 25 years through various statistical studies and abundant contradictory evidence. Yet, it is still accepted as fact in the baseball world. The baseball analysis website Baseball Prospectus published the statistical analysis essay Baseball Between the Numbers in 2006, which contains many articles proving lineup protection to be a myth. Many Major League insiders read it but still preach the concept of lineup protection as gospel.

The Inside Game is Law’s second book. It points out that many major decisions in Major League Baseball are still made intuitively. Using cognitive psychology and behavioral economics theories, it analyzes the causes of poor decisions and seeks solutions.

The author cites famous managers and players who believe in lineup protection. Joe Maddon, manager of the LA Angels, served as the Tampa Bay Rays manager from 2008 to 2014 and was twice named American League Manager of the Year. In 2015, he took the helm of the Chicago Cubs and won the National League Manager of the Year award. The following year, he led the Cubs to their first World Series championship in 108 years. He moved top hitter Kyle Schwarber’s batting order from fifth to second, saying he "deserved a better protection effect."

Miguel Cabrera, the Detroit Tigers’ star expected to enter the Hall of Fame after retirement, cited weak lineup protection rather than age (36) or physical condition as the reason for his 2019 slump. "Prince Fielder used to bat after me. Now you know who bats behind me? It’s a huge difference."

Lineup protection has long been a dominant belief in Korean professional baseball as well. Many managers mention the "protection" or "umbrella" effect when changing lineups. Some managers’ lineup construction is even inferred to be based on belief in the protection effect. Why does this baseless myth persist? The Inside Game explains as follows:

"Because it has been passed down like doctrine to everyone from players, coaches, scouts, and others, whether on the field or off, from the very bottom of the professional baseball hierarchy. It becomes truth because everyone believes it is true. One person tells two people, and those two tell two more each, spreading it to everyone. The baseball world is a closely connected and relatively uniform group where everyone knows each other through just one connection, so even in an era where truth is open and easy to find, lies are repeatedly reproduced."

The phenomenon of stubbornly clinging to falsehoods long after they have been exposed and rendered useless is called the "truth illusion effect." In baseball, the cost may not be high?perhaps just a poorly arranged batting order or a few fewer runs scored in a season.

However, Major League teams are organizations that must pursue even the smallest tactical advantage, like financial investors. Gaining just 5 more runs in a season can add one more win needed to reach the playoffs. In the postseason, where one win can decide a series, that win can be a decisive factor. This is a point we should pay close attention to in the era of misinformation and social media.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.