20 Chinese Opinion Leaders Predict China's Economic Growth Rate to Rise to 8.2% Next Year

Expectations of Base Effects Amid Stabilization of the COVID-19 Situation
Unpredictable Outlook Due to Worsening US-China Tensions

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] A survey of Chinese experts has revealed that China's economy is expected to record its highest growth rate since 2011 next year.

The Chinese state-run Global Times conducted a survey of 20 opinion leaders, including former Chinese officials and experts in economics and trade, and reported that China's economic growth rate will reach 8.2% next year. China's economic growth rate has been declining annually from a peak of 10.6% in 2010 to 9.6% in 2011, 7.8% in 2013, 6.7% in 2016, and 6.1% last year. If this forecast holds true, next year's growth rate will be the highest in 10 years since 2011.

In particular, experts participating in the survey expect China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in the first quarter of next year to reach 19%. This reflects a significant base effect, considering that China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year was -6.8%. Even excluding this effect, the economic growth rate for the first quarter of next year is estimated to be around 7%. The optimistic outlook appears to stem from expectations that the Chinese economy is returning to normal levels as the COVID-19 pandemic stabilizes.

Lu Ting, Nomura's Chief China Economist, who forecasts a 9% growth rate for China's economy next year, said, "We expect the normalization of the Chinese economy through COVID-19 containment, and increases in exports, investment, and consumption," adding, "As vaccine administration increases in emerging countries, a synergistic effect with the Chinese economy is anticipated."

Chinese experts are paying close attention to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, expected to be held this week. This meeting is known to review detailed matters related to the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021?2025), established at the 5th Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (19th 5th Plenum). The detailed policies set at the Central Economic Work Conference will be submitted as agenda items for next year's Two Sessions (National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the National People's Congress).

Wei Fengchun, Chief Analyst at China Bond Asset Management, said, "The Central Economic Work Conference will focus on the dual circulation policy, fostering advanced technology industries such as IT, and green growth," but added, "However, the Chinese leadership may not disclose next year's economic growth target, as they did this year." The main obstacle to China's economy was identified as Sino-US trade relations. Among the 20 experts, only three expressed optimism about the incoming Joe Biden administration, seven predicted continued tensions in Sino-US trade relations, and the remaining ten responded that the situation was unpredictable.

Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said, "Since the spread of COVID-19, China's exports of medical supplies to the US have increased significantly, but it is necessary to see whether exports of Chinese medical supplies will continue after the Biden administration takes office," expressing concerns that the second phase of trade negotiations with the US may not proceed smoothly.

He Weifen, Executive Committee Member of the China World Trade Organization Society, predicted, "If there is no additional tension regarding the first phase of trade negotiations between the Chinese government and the Biden administration, trade transactions between the two countries could reach an all-time high." The highest trade volume between the two countries was $630 billion in 2018.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.