Yoon Seokyeol Tops Presidential Polls... Will He Make a Direct Bid for the Presidency? [Han Seunggon's Political Notes]

Yoon Seokyeol leads with 28.2% in Hangil Research poll, followed by Lee Jaemyung at 21.3% and Lee Nakyon at 18.0%
Effectively regarded as a presidential contender by the opposition; growing interest in his political future
Potential investigation by the High-ranking Officials' Crime Investigation Office emerges as a key variable
People Power Party predicts Yoon will be the first target; opposition warns, "They will send Yoon Seokyeol to prison through a forced investigation"

Prosecutor General Yoon Seokyeol, who was unable to go to work due to the decision to exclude him from duty by Justice Minister Choo Mi Ae, is arriving at the Supreme Prosecutors' Office in Seocho-dong, Seocho-gu, Seoul on the afternoon of the 1st.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy, Han Seunggon] Prosecutor General Yoon Seokyeol has taken the top spot in a poll on support for potential presidential candidates, surpassing Democratic Party leader Lee Nakyon and Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jaemyung. Previously, in another public opinion poll, Prosecutor General Yoon also ranked first in preference among opposition presidential candidates, ahead of Lee Nakyon. As a result, speculation continues to emerge in political circles that Yoon may enter politics.

However, as the ruling party's amendment to the High-ranking Officials' Crime Investigation Office (Hugo) Act is about to be passed at the National Assembly plenary session, this is also emerging as a major variable in the political landscape surrounding Yoon. The opposition has expressed concerns that Yoon will continuously be the first target of a Hugo investigation.

Nevertheless, some argue that, given Yoon's support continues to rise the more he is criticized by the ruling party, being investigated by Hugo could become a symbolic moment among opposition supporters, and thus, the situation is not entirely negative.

On the 9th, one day before the Ministry of Justice's disciplinary committee for Prosecutor General Yoon Seokyeol, wreaths from conservative groups supporting Prosecutor General Yoon were placed at the entrance of the Supreme Prosecutors' Office in Seocho-dong.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Yoon Seokyeol takes first place with 28.2% support... Lee Nakyon in second with 21.3%

According to a survey conducted by polling agency Hangil Research at the request of Kuki News from December 5 to 7, targeting 1,002 adults nationwide, Yoon ranked first with 28.2% support as the preferred next presidential candidate. He was followed by Governor Lee Jaemyung (21.3%) and party leader Lee Nakyon (18.0%).

Yoon's support rose by 3.5 percentage points compared to the previous survey (November 10), widening the gap with second-place Lee Jaemyung to 6.9 percentage points. This is outside the margin of error (sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level).

While Lee Jaemyung's support increased by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous survey, Lee Nakyon's support fell by 4.2 percentage points. The polling agency analyzed that the drop was influenced by the fact that a close associate of Lee Nakyon made an extreme choice during a prosecution investigation on December 3.

Yoon's support increased across all age groups: ▲50s (from 24.4% to 32.4%), ▲30s (from 19.6% to 25.4%), ▲20s (from 25.5% to 28.0%), ▲40s (from 18.4% to 19.9%), and ▲60 and older (from 31.8% to 32.7%).

By region, support increased everywhere except the Honam region. The highest support was in Daegu and North Gyeongsang (TK) at 37.6%, followed by Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang (PK) at 30.1%. Incheon and Gyeonggi recorded 30.0%, Seoul 29.8%, Chungcheong 28.4%, Jeju 26.9%, and Gangwon 22.6%, all exceeding 20%. Only Honam was low at 9.1%.

This survey had a response rate of 6.3% and a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the websites of Hangil Research and the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

On the 9th, one day before the Ministry of Justice's disciplinary committee for Prosecutor General Yoon Seokyeol, officials were coming and going through the entrance of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office in Seocho-dong.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆ Will Yoon Seokyeol enter politics... Ruling party expects him to be Hugo's first investigation target

Speculation has continued in Yeouido political circles that Yoon may take steps toward a political career. The latest poll results lend weight to this view.

In a poll commissioned by Asia Economy to WinGKorea Consulting on November 15-16, targeting 1,000 voters aged 18 and older nationwide (using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers and automated response), Lee Nakyon and Yoon Seokyeol recorded 42.3% and 42.5% support, respectively, in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up. The race was too close to call within the margin of error.

Earlier, in a survey conducted by Hangil Research for Kuki News from November 7 to 9, targeting 1,022 voters aged 18 and older nationwide, 24.7% of respondents supported Yoon, surpassing ruling party figures Lee Nakyon (22.2%) and Lee Jaemyung (18.4%) for the first time (margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Among opposition supporters, Yoon is effectively regarded as a presidential candidate on par with those from the ruling party.

On the 8th, at the plenary meeting of the National Assembly's Legislation and Judiciary Committee, Baek Hyeryun, the Democratic Party whip, and other members stood up to express their support for the partial amendment bill concerning the establishment and operation of the High-ranking Officials' Crime Investigation Office (Hugo).
[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, there are also variables to consider when predicting Yoon Seokyeol's potential political career. The ruling Democratic Party's amendment to the Hugo Act is currently awaiting passage at the National Assembly plenary session. The People Power Party has suggested that Yoon will be the first target of a Hugo investigation.

It remains uncertain whether Yoon will actually become a target of investigation or what the outcome of such a process might be. For now, the opposition believes that at the very least, Yoon will be the first to be investigated.

Park Minshik, a former prosecutor and ex-lawmaker of the Saenuri Party (predecessor of the People Power Party), posted on Facebook under the title "Three Missions of Hugo," stating, "In the end, things are proceeding according to the original scenario. Hugo will be established unconditionally, and the president's loyalist will be appointed as its chief investigator."

He continued, "At the disciplinary committee on the 10th, they will attempt to oust Yoon Seokyeol. This could be completed that day, or it could be delayed." He added, "However, it's a matter of degree. If it is delayed, Hugo will take over from Justice Minister Choo Mi Ae. It's like a wolf leaving and a tiger arriving."

Regarding Hugo's mission, Park emphasized, "The first target of Hugo's investigation will be Yoon Seokyeol and other prosecutors. Ultimately, Yoon will be removed." He added, "Hugo's mission is to protect the regime, so there is no way they will leave the most threatening figure, Yoon Seokyeol, alone." He further stated, "It may seem unimaginable, but they will send Yoon to prison through a forced investigation, and at the same time, there will be a mass purge of prosecutors who are seen as thorns in their side."

He also predicted, "Season 2 of the 'eradication of deep-rooted evils' will begin. Judges, Board of Audit and Inspection officials, civil servants, and opposition lawmakers will all be targeted indiscriminately under the pretext of abuse of power. The air will be thick with the smell of blood." The Ministry of Justice's disciplinary committee for Yoon Seokyeol is scheduled for tomorrow, the 10th. At 10:30 a.m. that day, the Ministry of Justice's Prosecutors' Disciplinary Committee will deliberate on disciplinary action against Yoon.

Meanwhile, an expert predicted that Yoon is unlikely to take any immediate steps toward entering politics or running for president.

Political commentator Lee Jonghoon said that, considering Yoon's political capital, it is currently unlikely that Yoon will appear as a politician. Lee commented, "Looking at the current political reality, Yoon lacks a faction and, above all, has no political experience." He added, "It is difficult to improve this situation right now," and concluded, "Given all these factors, it does not appear that Yoon will enter politics at this time."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.