Prolonged "3rd Wave"... Tomorrow's Case Numbers Will Determine the Course

If Daily Confirmed Cases Soar Above 500, Escalation to Level 2.5 Unavoidable

On the 30th, showing early winter weather, citizens dressed in thick clothes are moving busily at Gwanghwamun Intersection in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] Despite a decrease in diagnostic testing over the weekend, the number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) remained in the 400s on the 30th, raising concerns about the prolonged 'third wave.' In the Seoul metropolitan area, where cases surged, social distancing measures have been escalated weekly: to level 1.5 on the 19th, level 2 on the 24th, and to the '2+α' level on the 1st of next month, but the increase in confirmed cases has not slowed.

Experts view December 1, just one day later, as a critical turning point to gauge the third wave. This is because diagnostic testing is expected to return to weekday levels, and the effects of the previous stage escalations will begin to fully manifest. If the number of confirmed cases again soars above 500 tomorrow, an upgrade to level 2.5 is expected to be inevitable soon.

Professor Lee Jae-gap of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital said, "Considering that 400 to 500 confirmed cases were reported even on the weekend, the number of cases is likely to increase further for the time being," adding, "Attention should be paid to tomorrow’s confirmed case numbers as diagnostic testing increases on weekdays and the effects of social distancing measures begin to appear."

Typically, the number of tests decreases on weekends, leading to fewer confirmed cases. As of midnight the previous day, the number of tests was 14,968, which is 7,454 fewer than on the 28th. The drop from the 500s to the 400s in confirmed cases may be an optical illusion. Professor Lee said, "From tomorrow, the '2+α' level, which strengthens quarantine measures for some facilities, will begin in the metropolitan area," and added, "We need to observe the situation for 2 to 3 days and prepare for an escalation to level 2.5."

Over the past week (24th to 30th), the average daily number of confirmed cases was 465.4, approaching the 500 mark. During the same period, the number of locally transmitted cases, a key indicator for adjusting social distancing levels, was 438.7, which already meets the criteria for level 2.5.

Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital stated, "Although the government has raised the quarantine level in the metropolitan area to level 2 or higher, a balloon effect has already appeared, with confirmed cases increasing not only in the metropolitan area, which has the highest number of cases, but also in non-metropolitan regions such as Busan, Gyeongnam, Chungcheong, and Honam," adding, "Strengthening quarantine measures only in the metropolitan area will no longer be sufficient."

He particularly noted that due to seasonal factors that allow the virus to survive longer and the overall lowered vigilance of people due to the prolonged COVID-19 situation, it will be difficult to achieve the same social distancing effects as during the second wave in August and September.

Professor Kim said, "The current level 2 quarantine measures under the revised five-level system are much more relaxed than level 2 during the second wave, which is another reason why the effects are hard to expect," and criticized, "Although the government presented criteria for each of the five levels, it has applied them loosely without strict adherence, demanding more stringent quarantine measures from the public than the official levels, which has caused confusion in signaling."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.