How Did Yoon Seok-yeol Become Number One... Analyzing 'Public Opinion + Polls'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] The poll results showing Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol as the top candidate for the next presidential election have shaken the political world. After lingering in third place behind Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party, and Lee Jae-myung, governor of Gyeonggi Province, Yoon surged to first place, creating a sensation. However, the large discrepancy with other poll results has also raised some skepticism.

The survey was conducted by Hangil Research commissioned by Cookie News. It asked supporters about six candidates from the pro-government camp and six from the opposition camp, then asked respondents to choose one candidate among six overall.

The six overall candidates were Sim Sang-jung, Lee Nak-yeon, and Lee Jae-myung from the pro-government camp, and Yoon Seok-yeol, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Hong Joon-pyo from the opposition camp. No candidates from the People Power Party were included. When asked only about opposition candidates, Oh Se-hoon received 4.5%, Yoo Seung-min 9.0%, Won Hee-ryong 2.8%, and Hwang Kyo-ahn 2.8%, but all of them were excluded from the overall candidate list. Combined, they account for about 19%.

Among the pro-government candidates, the combined support for Kim Du-kwan (1.1%), Kim Boo-kyum (1.8%), and Chung Sye-kyun (3.2%) was only 6%.

Support for opposition candidates other than Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol was relatively dispersed. By reducing the number of candidates in the survey, the concentration of support for Yoon appeared more pronounced.

When asked about all candidates from both camps, 62% of People Power Party supporters chose Prosecutor General Yoon. Democratic Party supporters were divided between Lee Nak-yeon at 47.4% and Lee Jae-myung at 31.1%.

The Hangil Research poll compressed the number of candidates from both camps, which relatively increased Yoon’s support rate.

The survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire (23% landline telephone interviews, 77% wireless ARS, random RDD sampling), with a response rate of 3.8% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Detailed results can be found on the Hangil Research and Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission websites.

In a poll released on the 2nd by Realmeter commissioned by OhmyNews, nine candidates were asked about: Kim Kyung-soo, Kim Boo-kyum, Sim Sang-jung, Ahn Cheol-soo, Oh Se-hoon, Won Hee-ryong, Yoo Seung-min, Yoon Seok-yeol, and Lee Nak-yeon. Prosecutor General Yoon ranked third.

Korea Gallup showed Yoon’s support rate at about 11%, approximately 8 percentage points lower than Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung. This was a free-response survey without presenting candidates, allowing respondents to answer subjectively. Support within the pro-government camp was largely split between Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung, while Yoon led alone in the opposition camp. Thus, when the number of candidates is narrowed, the concentration effect appears more pronounced.

Hangil Research explained that focusing on candidates with relatively high chances of running for president allows for better understanding of public opinion by considering the consolidation effect.

In any case, Yoon’s support trend is on the rise. Crucially, at the National Assembly inspection of the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office on the 23rd of last month, Yoon said, “I will slowly consider how to serve society and the people after retirement,” which seems to have ignited interest. Many analysts interpreted this as a de facto declaration of political intent. People who show determination tend to gain more support.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.