Green Book "Exports and Industrial Activity Improve, Employment Recovery Limited... 'Real Economy Uncertainty' Continues"

MoEF Publishes November Report on Recent Economic Trends

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[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Joo Sang-don] The Ministry of Economy and Finance recently diagnosed the economy for two consecutive months as "the uncertainty of the real economy continues." Although export and industrial activity indicators show improvement, the severe slump in the employment market still persists. Regarding external economic conditions, concerns about delayed global economic recovery due to the continued spread of COVID-19 and strengthened lockdown measures in major countries coexist with expectations related to vaccine development.

On the 13th, the Ministry of Economy and Finance published the "November Recent Economic Trends (Green Book)" containing these details.

The Green Book, through a comprehensive evaluation, stated, "Recently, our economy has maintained a moderate export recovery trend, and manufacturing, consumption, and investment have improved," but also noted, "The recovery of service and employment indicators remains constrained, and uncertainty in the real economy continues due to the global spread of COVID-19." Reflecting the divergence between domestic demand and employment indicators, the phrase "uncertainty continues" was used for the second consecutive month following the October Green Book.

Exports in October recorded $44.98 billion, down 3.6% compared to the same period last year. However, considering two fewer working days, the average daily export increased by 5.6%, marking a positive figure for the first time in nine months.

The three major indicators of industrial activity trends in September?production, consumption, and investment?showed a "triple increase" for the first time in three months since June. Total industrial production rose by 2.3% compared to the previous month, retail sales increased by 1.7%, and facility investment grew by 7.4%.

On the other hand, difficulties in the employment market intensified. The number of employed persons in October decreased by 421,000 compared to the same month last year, continuing the decline for eight consecutive months. The decrease in employment in October was the largest since the spread of COVID-19. In particular, the unemployment rate soared to 3.7%, the highest in 21 years since October 1999 (5.0%).

Expectations and concerns intersected regarding the external economy. It was assessed that "externally, the continued spread of COVID-19 in major countries and strengthened lockdown measures have weakened the improvement in real indicators, expanding concerns about delayed global economic recovery, but recently, expectations regarding vaccine development have also spread."

In the United States, GDP in the third quarter increased sharply due to the base effect and the resumption of economic activities. However, major real indicators showed mixed trends, such as industrial production turning negative in September. In China, with an expanded consumption increase, investment and exports also rose together, resulting in a higher GDP growth rate in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. In Japan, industrial production increased in September, but retail sales turned to a decline, and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained below the baseline of 50, indicating a somewhat delayed recovery. The Eurozone's third-quarter growth rate increased by 12.7% quarter-on-quarter due to the resumption of economic activities, but recovery has stalled as retail sales turned to a decline amid the resurgence of COVID-19 and strengthened quarantine measures.

An official from the Ministry of Economy and Finance said, "The government will strengthen all-round policy response efforts, including thorough quarantine measures, fiscal and investment execution management, revitalization of domestic demand, and maintaining export capabilities."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.