[The Editors' Verdict] For Biden to Prevent a Trump Season 2 in the U.S.

Kyungsoo Kim, Professor Emeritus at Sungkyunkwan University

The 2020 U.S. presidential election, which attracted global attention, has come to an end. World leaders sent congratulatory messages to President-elect Joe Biden, who secured a majority of the electoral votes, but President Donald Trump, who failed to win re-election, declared legal action instead of conceding defeat. He raised issues with the vote count being overturned due to a concentration of Democratic supporters in the mail-in ballots, which increased significantly due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Although expected, it is unclear whether his refusal to concede will be a storm in a teacup or drag on until just before the new president’s term begins on January 20 next year. If this dispute causes political uncertainty, it is obvious that it will have a negative ripple effect on the financial markets. During the 2000 presidential election recount that went all the way to the Supreme Court, the S&P 500 index fell by 8% over about a month.

Regarding the pandemic, the United States has failed (see the May 12 issue of SisiBibi). The cumulative death toll from COVID-19 has reached 230,000, and daily confirmed cases have surpassed 100,000. The greater failure is that the country has been split in two over how to respond to the pandemic. Richard Haas, president of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), likened the divided American society to “One America, Two Nations.” The “two nations within America” are also clearly reflected in the election results, which were decided by a mere 4 million votes out of 150 million cast. If the aftermath of the election drags on, American society will become more divided, and resources necessary to unite national strength will inevitably be wasted.

President Trump initially broke the liberal order based on international norms that the U.S. designed and led for 70 years after World War II, known as Pax Americana. He ignored the World Trade Organization (WTO), a multilateral trade agreement, and scrapped the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which the Obama administration had painstakingly negotiated. Instead, he pursued hegemony under the banner of America First. The National Security Strategy announced by the White House in 2017 blurred the lines between the economy and national security, integrating all U.S. national powers?political, economic, and military?to realize America First through bilateral agreements rather than multilateral ones, and through coercion rather than cooperation.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute, compared the liberal order built by the U.S. to a club with membership fees collected by the U.S. He argued that the U.S. provided security guarantees and international norms to its allies and achieved shared prosperity, and that it is the U.S., not its allies, that is free-riding. The neglect of contributions to international organizations, inadequate responses to climate change, and the failure to hold allies accountable for causing the global financial crisis are all benefits derived from U.S. leadership. However, President Trump accused allies of exploiting the U.S.

From 2016 to 2018, the Trump administration contributed 22% of the budget but neglected the United Nations (UN). Now, China, which contributed only 7.8% during the same period, has taken over. China heads four agencies including the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and wields strong influence. Particularly in the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), Chinese tech companies are leading facial recognition standards.

Even if President-elect Biden fulfills his promise to rejoin the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Climate Agreement, the U.S. cannot restore its status to what it was four years ago. The U.S.’s position in the international community has already shrunk. Only when Biden works to restore relations with allies and rebuild the liberal order will it be possible to compete with China, which leads state capitalism as a liberal alternative, and reduce geopolitical risks in the Northeast Asia region. However, if he fails to unite a divided America, there could be a return to Trump Season 2 in four years.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.