[Agyeong Poll] Seoul Swing Voters Seem to Lean Toward People Power Party for Mayor Candidates

Party Support Ratings Show Democratic Party Much Higher, but Preferred Election Party Within Margin of Error

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] With about five months remaining until the Seoul mayoral by-election in April next year, the public sentiment among Seoul citizens has not clearly tilted toward either the Democratic Party or the People Power Party. While the party support rate shows the Democratic Party significantly ahead, when asked about the preferred party to win the by-election, hidden voters appear to have lent their support to the People Power Party.

In the 2018 local elections, the Democratic Party swept 24 out of 25 district mayor positions in Seoul, and in the general election last April, it won a landslide victory in Seoul with a vote share nearly 12 percentage points higher than the then United Future Party (now People Power Party). However, at present, it is difficult to be optimistic about the by-election next year.

The Seoul citizens' opinion poll commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Win-G Korea Consulting asked separately about party support and the preferred party for the Seoul mayoral election. This is because even if respondents do not support a particular party, they might vote for its candidate, or vice versa.

The Democratic Party's support rate was overwhelmingly higher at 35.2% compared to the People Power Party's 22.9%. This gap is similar to the vote share difference in last April's general election. When combined with the Open Democratic Party's support rate (5.2%), it reaches 40.4%. A noteworthy point is that the 'non-affiliated' group accounted for 20.6%. How this group decides could act as a variable in the election outcome.

When asked "Which party's candidate do you want to be elected?", the "None/Don't know" response significantly dropped to 11.5%. Instead, the People Power Party candidate option surged to 34.5%, while the Democratic Party stood at 37.9%. This suggests that the non-affiliated voters are relatively leaning toward the People Power Party. It can also be interpreted that while they do not support the People Power Party, many prefer its candidate over the Democratic Party candidate winning. The 'third party candidate' also accounted for a considerable 11.0%.

The fact that the cause of this by-election lies with the Democratic Party seems to have some effect. The Democratic Party decided last weekend through a vote of all party members to field a candidate in the by-election. This is perceived as a political decision that breaks the promise not to field a candidate if responsible for the vacancy, which could negatively impact the Democratic Party.

In this poll, 81.5% of Democratic Party supporters said the party should nominate a candidate. However, 89.5% of People Power Party supporters opposed this, and even among Justice Party supporters, opposition (39.8%) was higher than support (36.9%).

Controversy over the validity of the vote has further worsened the situation for the Democratic Party. Of the 803,959 eligible party members, 211,804 (26.35%) participated in the vote, with an approval rate of 86.64%. Some have pointed out that this does not meet the quorum requirement of 'at least one-third turnout' under current party rules.

The Democratic Party explained that this vote does not fall under that clause, but the People Power Party has intensified its attacks. On the 3rd, Joo Ho-young, floor leader of the People Power Party, criticized, "The Democratic Party failed to meet the requirement with a 26.35% turnout and should discard the vote, but they changed their story again, saying it was just to gauge public opinion," adding, "They treat the law as if it were a trivial object."

Seoul citizens viewed Park Young-sun, Minister of SMEs and Startups, as the most suitable Democratic Party candidate, with Democratic Party lawmaker Park Ju-min ranking second. Park Ju-min recorded a meaningful vote share, placing third in the Democratic Party leadership election at the end of August, demonstrating competitiveness as a leading candidate in this poll as well. Among opposition candidates, former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo received high responses, appearing to lead in name recognition. Notably, former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop, who left the Democratic Party last month, ranked third. Given his relatively strong support among Justice Party supporters, this suggests that as an opposition candidate, he may attract some support not only from conservatives but also from progressive voters.

This survey was conducted on September 1-2 among men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul, with an overall response rate of 8.07%, totaling 1,000 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of September 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.