[Agyeong Poll] Seoul Citizens' Preference for Seoul Mayor: Democratic Party 37.9% · People Power Party 34.5% 'Neck and Neck'

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The political parties that Seoul citizens hope will be elected as mayor of Seoul are the Democratic Party and the People Power Party, which are neck and neck within the margin of error. This contrasts with the 12.3 percentage point gap in party support ratings.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting on the 1st and 2nd of this month, surveying 1,000 Seoul citizens (100% mobile phones, automated response), the parties that citizens hope will win the mayoral election are the Democratic Party at 37.9% and the People Power Party at 34.5%.

The gap between the two major parties is only 3.4 percentage points, about a quarter of the 12.3 percentage point gap in party support ratings. This appears to be influenced by the Democratic Party’s responsibility for the by-election and the defection of conservative party supporters included in the large number of independents.

Additionally, responses naming third-party candidates and independent candidates recorded 11% and 5.1%, respectively, while those answering none or don’t know accounted for 11.5%. Depending on how the remaining independents are absorbed in next year’s by-election, a last-minute comeback by the opposition is quite possible.

Among men, 38.3% preferred the Democratic Party candidate, while 34.1% preferred the People Power Party candidate. Conversely, among women, the preferences were 37.5% and 34.9%, respectively, showing relatively lower support for the Democratic Party candidate. This is interpreted as being influenced by disappointment over the successive sexual harassment scandals involving ruling party local government heads and the Democratic Party’s response to them.

By age group, among men in their 20s, preference for the Democratic Party candidate was only 16.2%, but men in their 30s showed 36.2%, and men in their 40s showed 59.3%, exceeding the majority. Conversely, preference for the People Power Party candidate among men in their 20s was 41.9%, and men in their 30s recorded 34.3%. Men in their 40s and 50s showed lower preference for the People Power Party candidate at 23.6% and 28.9%, respectively. Among men in their 60s and 70s, preference for the People Power Party was somewhat dominant at 38.8% and 39.8%, respectively.

Among women in their 20s, preference for the Democratic Party candidate was 48.8%, 45.5% for women in their 30s, and 44.6% for women in their 40s, showing nearly majority support. Conversely, preference for the People Power Party candidate was low at 12.7%, 29.5%, and 29.4%, respectively. However, from the 50s age group onward, 31.9% preferred the Democratic Party candidate and 43.4% preferred the People Power Party candidate, showing a reversal, with the People Power Party leading at 26.9% and 46.2% among those in their 60s. Among those aged 70 and above, the People Power Party also surpassed the majority with 57.3%.

By region, in the downtown area, 42.5% preferred the Democratic Party candidate, while 29.2% preferred the People Power Party candidate. The Democratic Party’s support was also strong in the northeast and northwest areas. Conversely, in the southwest area, support for the Democratic Party and People Power Party candidates was 38.2% and 32.9%, respectively, narrowing the gap, while in the southeast area, support for the People Power Party candidate was 44.3%, surpassing the Democratic Party candidate at 32.1%. This is analyzed as being due to the lower Democratic Party support in the affluent southeast area, including Gangnam and Seocho, due to tax burdens such as the comprehensive real estate tax.

This survey was conducted on men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul Special City on the 1st and 2nd of this month, with an overall response rate of 8.07%, totaling 1,000 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of September 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.