'Vote Count' Shows Biden Leading, but 'Presidential Election Outcome' Remains Uncertain

U.S. Nationwide Poll Shows Biden Leading Significantly
Presidential Victory Hinges on Swing State Election Results
Trump: "Expecting an October Miracle"
Pennsylvania and Florida Are Battlegrounds
North Carolina and Iowa Results Also Draw Intense Attention

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] D-1. With only one day left until the U.S. presidential election, the outcome remains unpredictable. Overall polling trends show Democratic candidate Joe Biden leading by a wide margin. President Donald Trump is showing a late surge, raising hopes for an 'October Surprise.' However, since the battleground states that will decide the election remain uncertain, experts say it is still too early to declare a winner in the U.S. presidential race.

According to the polling aggregation by RealClearPolitics (RCP) on the 1st (local time), Biden holds 51.1% support nationwide in the U.S., significantly ahead of President Trump’s 43.9%. Many forecasts based on these polls predict that Biden will win by a large margin in the popular vote as well.

The United States, which adopts a federal system, uses an indirect election system through the Electoral College to decide the president, so winning the popular vote alone does not guarantee victory.

Therefore, the election results in battleground states, where winning by even a single vote can secure all the electoral votes, are crucial. Especially in Florida (29 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), which are expected to determine the outcome of this election, the results remain too close to call.

In particular, the average of polls compiled for Florida shows Biden narrowly leading with 48.6% over Trump’s 47.2%, a 1.4 percentage point difference. However, considering that Biden led by 4.5 percentage points in polls from October 7, the gap between the two candidates has narrowed. Among nine recent polls, six show Biden leading while three show Trump ahead.

Similarly, in Pennsylvania, Biden is ahead but the margin has shrunk over time. Polls aggregated on October 12 showed Biden leading Trump by 7.3 percentage points, but recently that lead has decreased to 4.3 percentage points.

Results in North Carolina (15 electoral votes) and Iowa (6 electoral votes) are also noteworthy. In North Carolina, Biden holds a slim lead of 0.3 percentage points over Trump in the polls. In Iowa, Trump leads Biden by 0.7 percentage points. Biden had consistently led in this state since September but was overtaken near the end of the campaign.

Election forecasting site FiveThirtyEight, combining various scenarios based on polling data, predicts Biden has an 89% chance of winning, while Trump’s chance is 10%. FiveThirtyEight’s analysis suggests the most likely outcome is Biden securing 343 electoral votes, surpassing Trump’s 195. To become president, a candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes. However, the site also leaves open the possibility that Trump could win 338 electoral votes if he sweeps most battleground states.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The New York Times (NYT) currently estimates, based on polls and other data, that Biden has secured 212 electoral votes and Trump 125.

FiveThirtyEight stated, "The only thing we can say for sure is that the winner will be known only after all the votes are counted."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.