16.66 Million Domestic Residents Aged 65 and Over by 2040... More Than Double in 20 Years

Statistics Korea, 'Population Projections for Koreans and Foreigners (2017-2040)' Reflecting the 2019 Special Future Population Estimates

Domestic Population Continues to Decline: '50.05 Million in 2020 → 49.80 Million in 2030 → 48.58 Million in 2040'
Elderly Domestic Population Surges: 8.03 Million in 2020 → 12.68 Million in 2030 → 16.66 Million in 2040
Total Population Peaks at 51.94 Million in 2028... Declines to 50.86 Million by 2040

Domestic Elderly Population and Composition Ratio (2017~2040)

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Joo Sang-don] By 2040, the elderly population aged 65 and over among domestic residents excluding foreign nationals is expected to more than double compared to now. While the total population decreases, the elderly population will increase, causing the proportion of elderly people, currently around 16%, to exceed 34%.

On the 15th, Statistics Korea announced the 'Domestic and Foreign Population Projection (2017?2040)' reflecting the 2019 special future population projection containing these details.

The domestic population is projected to continuously decline from 50.05 million in 2020 to 49.80 million in 2030 and 48.58 million in 2040. Although naturalized citizens who were foreign nationals at birth but acquired Korean nationality by the reference point are expected to increase from 210,000 in 2020 to 540,000 in 2040, and second-generation immigrants from 280,000 to 700,000, the number of domestic births will decrease from 49.56 million to 47.34 million.

Accordingly, the domestic working-age population is expected to decrease from 35.79 million (71.5%) in 2020 to 27.03 million (55.6%) in 2040. The working-age population in 2040 will be about 75.5% of that in 2020.

The domestic elderly population is projected to more than double over the next 20 years, from 8.03 million in 2020 to 12.68 million in 2030 and 16.66 million in 2040. The proportion of elderly people aged 65 and over will rapidly increase from 16.1% of the total population in 2020 to 25.5% in 2030 and 34.3% in 2040.

As the working-age population decreases and the elderly population increases, the old-age dependency ratio will rise from 22.4 per 100 working-age people in 2020 to 61.6 in 2040. The aging index, which is the number of elderly people per 100 youth population, is expected to increase from 129.0 in 2020 to 259.6 in 2030 and 340.9 in 2040.

The number of foreign nationals residing in the country was 1.73 million in 2020, accounting for 3.3% of the total population. By 2040, it is expected to rise to 2.28 million, making up 4.5% of the total population, which is 1.4 times higher than this year.

Meanwhile, the total population combining domestic and foreign nationals is projected to peak at 51.94 million in 2028, then decline to about 50.86 million by 2040, down from 51.78 million in 2020.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.