IMF: "China's Solo Plus Growth... 1.9% This Year"

IMF Raises June Growth Forecast by 0.8 Percentage Points to 1.1%
Caixin Projects Q3 Growth Rate at 4.8-6.2%... Average of 16 Domestic and International Surveys Predicts 5.5%

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] China's state-run Xinhua News Agency reported on the 14th that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted China's economy to grow by 1.9% this year.

Xinhua News Agency cited the IMF World Economic Outlook report, stating that while the economic forecast for China in June was 1.1%, the outlook was revised upward as the Chinese economy recovered in the second half of the year.

Xinhua also reported that China is the only country in the world expected to have positive growth, with a forecast of 8.2% economic growth next year.

On the other hand, it reported that advanced economies such as the United States are expected to shrink by 5.8%, and emerging and developing economies by 3.3% this year.

Specifically, it added that the U.S. economy is expected to contract by 4.3% this year, the European Union (EU) by 8.3%, and Japan by 5.3%.

Expectations for China's third-quarter economic growth rate are also increasing.

Caixin, a Chinese economic and financial media outlet, predicted that China's third-quarter economic growth rate will be 5.5% year-on-year.

According to a survey conducted by Caixin targeting 16 domestic and international institutions, the estimated growth rate for the third quarter ranges from 4.8% to 6.2%, with an average growth rate of 5.5%. The second-quarter economic growth rate was 3.2%.

In particular, Caixin reported that retail sales, which had been sluggish, are likely to increase by 2.5% year-on-year.

The Global Times reported that China's exports and imports in September increased by 9.9% and 13.2% respectively compared to the same month last year, indicating that the Chinese economy is on the path to normalization.

Regarding the third-quarter economic growth rate, all experts predicted a 6% growth. They also added that the fourth quarter is expected to see growth in the 6% range, with an annual growth rate of 2.5%.

Analyst Liu Xueji of Bank of Communications forecasted, "The increase in exports and trade surplus will drive the rise in China's economic growth rate in the third quarter."

The Global Times also added that the Chinese government's 'dual circulation' strategy, which focuses on the domestic economy, will be a major driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.