'Post-Abe' Japan's Suga to Become Prime Minister the Day After Tomorrow... Challenges Include COVID-19 and House of Representatives Dissolution (Comprehensive)

LDP Presidential Election on the 14th Yields 70.6% Victory Rate... Attention on Possibility of Long-Term Rule

Yoshihide Suga, elected as the president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party on the 14th
[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyeon-jin] "There must never be a political vacuum in times of national crisis. I will firmly succeed the Abe Shinzo Cabinet."

Suga Yoshihide, the newly elected leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), highlighted former Prime Minister Abe for over ten days after announcing his candidacy. Although he formed a 'one-strong' power structure with the support of major LDP factions, he emphasized policies carried out during the 7 years and 8 months of Abe's second cabinet rather than introducing new policies reflecting his own colors. This is why the soon-to-be-launched Suga administration is called 'Abe 2.0.'

The biggest reason why the newly elected leader Suga, who could not shed Abe's influence, became the leading candidate for the next prime minister is ironically 'continuity.' With numerous domestic and international challenges piled up due to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and Abe suddenly resigning due to chronic illness, the stability of government operation and the vested interests of factions holding current power resulted in the outcome of 'Prime Minister Suga.'

Initially, it was reported that Prime Minister Abe considered Kishida Fumio, the party secretary-general, as his successor. However, as Kishida struggled to expand his influence and the possibility of former secretary-general Ishiba Shigeru?Abe's rival and the top candidate in public opinion polls?winning increased, an alternative was needed to block him. Minister Suga, who comes from a farming family, did not rank within the top three as a prospective prime minister in polls. However, he gained public recognition to the extent of being nicknamed 'Reiwa Uncle' after personally announcing Japan's new era name 'Reiwa' in April last year. Above all, the fact that he belongs to no faction became the background for major factions to support him.

However, some predict that once the Suga administration is launched after the extraordinary Diet session on the 16th, his lack of factional backing may rather hinder his performance as prime minister. His political base is weak, and it is highly likely that his premiership will be a 'caretaker cabinet' lasting only until the remaining term ends in September next year. The major factions have started competing for leadership while keeping an eye on the moves of Nikai Toshihiro, the secretary-general who played the role of 'top contributor' to Suga's election.

Japanese media have already reported that former secretary-general Ishiba and party secretary-general Kishida are competing for second place with the next election in mind one year from now. In this election, Kishida secured 89 votes (16.7%), surpassing Ishiba's 68 votes (12.7%).

Professor Jeong Dae-jin of Ajou University’s Institute for Unification Studies said, "As Minister Suga himself stated, it is highly likely to be a managerial cabinet," adding, "He is expected to focus on managing the situation without worsening problems to ensure the success of the Tokyo Olympics next year."

Of course, there is also speculation that the newly elected leader Suga will aim for a long-term premiership. Besides parliamentary votes, Suga secured a large number of local votes. Initially, Japanese media predicted local votes would be over 50, but he actually received as many as 89 votes, achieving a landslide victory within the LDP. This is expected to secure his base within the party and allow him to continue key tasks involving the LDP and the next administration's personnel.

Moreover, the possibility of a long-term administration can be confirmed by whether the House of Representatives is dissolved and a general election is held. Winning an election would secure the administration’s momentum and allow him to check rivals ahead of the next LDP leadership election scheduled for September next year. Reports that the timing for dissolving the House of Representatives is imminent are being given significant attention. Aso Taro, Japan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, said in a lecture the day before, "(The timing of dissolving the House of Representatives) is very important," and suggested it might happen soon after the next administration takes office. On the 9th, Defense Minister Kono Taro predicted an early general election would be held next month.

Professor Hosaka Yuji of Sejong University said, "Since dissolution must happen when approval ratings are high to win, an election will likely be held soon," adding, "There will be negative factors such as the Olympics next year, so the election will probably be held within this year."

If Minister Suga is elected prime minister following his election as party leader, he is expected to focus on reviving the economy frozen by the COVID-19 crisis. He has emphasized, "I will devote all efforts to the economy to restore daily life as soon as possible," mentioning employment recovery, wage increases, expanding inbound tourism, and agricultural reform. Regarding fiscal soundness, he has maintained the stance that "it is impossible without economic revival," and clarified that while a consumption tax increase is necessary considering social security, it will not happen within the next ten years. He also indicated that he would continue the large-scale quantitative easing policies represented by Abenomics as a successor to the Abe Cabinet.

Profile of Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide

- Born December 1948 in Akita Prefecture

- First elected to the House of Representatives in October 1996

- Left the LDP's former Obuchi faction (now Takeshita faction) in July 1998

- Appointed Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications in the first Abe Cabinet in September 2006

- Left the Koga faction in September 2009 and maintained a non-faction stance

- Acting Secretary-General of the LDP in September 2012

- Chief Cabinet Secretary in the second Abe Cabinet in December 2012

- Holds the record for longest tenure as Chief Cabinet Secretary as of July 2016

- Elected LDP leader and expected to become the 99th Prime Minister of Japan in September 2020

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.