Even with the Increase in Seoul Apartment Quick Sales, the Perceived Effect on Housing Price Decline is Uncertain

10 Days Later, Seoul Quick Sale Listings Increase by 20%
Seoul Leads with 718 Cases
Clear Rise in Gangnam Area, Yangcheon, and Mapo

Despite Buyer’s Market and Downward Pressure,
Record High Prices in Gangbuk Apartments
Due to Panic Buying Focused on Mid-Low Price Range

[Asia Economy Reporters Donghyun Choi and Mune Won] Since the beginning of this month, a phenomenon has emerged in the Seoul apartment market where urgent sale listings are accumulating, and there are more sellers than buyers. Although the publicly available figures and statistics suggest signs of a housing price decline, some complexes are still seeing new record-high listings, indicating that the perception of actual demand-side buyers is still somewhat distant. Experts predict that in such a situation, a cautious market trend will continue for the time being.

According to real estate big data company Asil on the 11th, Seoul recorded the highest increase in urgent sale listings nationwide this month, with 718 cases. Urgent sale listings, which were 3,463 at the end of last month, increased by 20.7% to 4,181 as of this day. Looking at the trend of urgent sale listings in Seoul over the past month, the number peaked at 5,494 on the 6th, right after the August 4 supply measures, then steadily decreased to the mid-3,000 range by the end of the same month. However, since the beginning of this month, urgent sale listings have turned upward again, exceeding 4,000 for two consecutive days recently.

Fatigue from Price Increases? Clear Rise in Urgent Sales in Gangnam Area

The increase in urgent sale listings was particularly noticeable in the Gangnam area, Yangcheon, and Mapo districts. Gangnam-gu and Yangcheon-gu saw urgent sale listings increase by 71 each this month, showing the most distinct rise among the 25 autonomous districts in Seoul. Following were Seocho-gu (365→433 cases), Songpa-gu (197→262 cases), and Mapo-gu (96→161 cases) in terms of the amount of increase. Notably, the increase in urgent sale listings appeared in all 24 districts except Gangbuk-gu this month. An Asil official explained, "These statistics are compiled from listings marked as urgent sales by real estate agents when uploading properties on Naver Real Estate. Since agents do not label listings as urgent sales without any criteria due to the government's policy to punish false listings, it seems to reflect the market situation to some extent."

By complex, the largest increase in urgent sale listings was in Mapo-gu Ahyeon-dong's 'Mapo Raemian Prugio.' Urgent sale listings increased from 11 at the end of last month to 44 recently. The current asking price for an 84㎡ (exclusive area, 6th floor) unit registered on Naver Real Estate is 1.67 billion KRW. It was listed at 1.7 billion KRW on the 5th but recently lowered by 30 million KRW. The actual transaction price for this apartment in July and August was 1.71 billion KRW. A representative from A Real Estate Agency in the area said, "Recently, many owners have put their homes on the market, but there are almost no buyers. The recent mention by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance Hong Nam-ki about a transaction with a sharp price drop within the complex seems to have affected buyer sentiment."

Market Also Shifts to Buyer’s Advantage

The cautious buyer sentiment is also reflected in recent statistics. According to the weekly apartment price trend survey released by KB Kookmin Bank, the Seoul apartment buyer dominance index this week recorded 96.2, down 5.3 points from 101.5 the previous week. This index, calculated by surveying real estate agencies in Seoul by KB, indicates that a value above 100 means buyers outnumber sellers, while below 100 means sellers outnumber buyers. This is the first time in 13 weeks since the second week of June that the index in Seoul has fallen below 100. KB Kookmin Bank explained, "As the upward trend in Seoul’s housing prices slows down, the market is stabilizing."

Industry insiders analyze that the effects of the government’s July 10 and August 4 supply measures are gradually becoming apparent. With increased tax burdens on multi-homeowners and corporate-owned properties, and the expectation that registered rental housing held by landlords who will be automatically deregistered by the end of the year will enter the market, downward pressure on prices is expected to strengthen.

Record High Prices Persist... Strong Demand in Outer and Mid-Low Price Areas

However, since new record-high prices continue in various parts of Seoul apartments, many argue that it is difficult to fully grasp the market atmosphere solely through statistics. In fact, areas with relatively mid-low price complexes such as Nowon, Dobong, Gangbuk, and Guro districts have shown unstable patterns with rapid price increases over the past few months. For example, the 84.9㎡ unit in Geonyeong 3rd Complex, Junggye-dong, Nowon-gu, surpassed the 1 billion KRW mark on July 14 and now has an asking price of up to 1.25 billion KRW. While high-priced complexes in Gangnam have somewhat slowed due to increased property taxes, panic buying by younger buyers has concentrated on mid-low price complexes, driving prices up.

Since the government announced plans to conduct pre-subscription for 60,000 households in the 3rd new towns starting next year, demand may be dispersed in the future. However, some experts emphasize that the future trend of housing prices will be crucial. Ham Young-jin, head of the Zigbang Big Data Lab, explained, "Seoul apartment prices are expected to remain flat for the time being, and high-priced housing will definitely show signs of slowing down."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.