[Kim Byungmin's Science Village] If Polar Bears and Antarctic Penguins Meet, Humanity Will Disappear

Kim Byung-min

The year 2020 is passing with great difficulty. The unusually long rainy season took away even the homes of those barely surviving the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus and abnormal climate first targeted the weak points of our society, breaking down the most vulnerable parts. However, nature does not create the unnecessary nor act maliciously without reason.

In meteorology, when the average sea surface temperature near the equatorial eastern Pacific drops below 0.5 degrees Celsius, it is defined as the 'La Ni?a' phenomenon. Conversely, when the temperature rises, it is called 'El Ni?o.' Since April, when COVID-19 began sweeping the world, the sea temperature in the eastern Pacific has been unusual. It dropped below the average, signaling the La Ni?a phenomenon.

It was predicted that heatwaves and heavy rains in the western Pacific would affect summer weather. While we were distracted by the virus, nature declared war and approached. The impact was not limited to Korea. Siberia boiled with temperatures of 38 degrees Celsius, and China suffered from devastating floods affecting the lifeline of its civilization.

At that time, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) detected La Ni?a and predicted the worst heatwave this summer. However, there was no heatwave; instead, we were hit by the longest rainy season and the worst heavy rains. The KMA even earned the dishonor of being called a "false forecast agency." Recently, AI has been introduced to improve weather forecast accuracy, but accurate weather prediction remains difficult.

There are factors involved in weather prediction: wind, atmospheric particles, and elements like clouds made of water vapor. Terrain and ocean characteristics also play a role. Most of these are fluid-like substances, either liquid or gas. In science and engineering, the study of the properties and movements of such flowing substances is called fluid dynamics.

Fluid dynamics is one of the most challenging fields. Many moving factors influence each other and interfere with each other's motion. Therefore, predicting fluid movement is difficult. You may have heard of the terms "butterfly effect" and "chaos."

American meteorologist Edward Lorenz (1917?2008) claimed that the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil could cause a tornado in Texas, USA. French mathematician Henri Poincar? (1854?1912) explained the three-body problem related to gravitational forces among three or more objects causing changes. He foresaw the chaos problem, a state of disorder. Fluid dynamics is indeed complex.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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Humanity has explored the causes of these fluid flows. Eventually, Swiss mathematicians Jakob Bernoulli (1654?1705) and Leonhard Euler (1707?1783) discovered that the cause was pressure differences.

However, in 1822, French engineer Claude Louis Navier (1785?1836) argued that fluid density, or viscosity, causes fluids to move differently under the same pressure conditions. He incorporated the relationship between density and viscosity into the Euler equation for inviscid fluids, creating a new equation. Yet, the mathematical explanation was insufficient. Scholars began to take an interest in the fundamental physical properties of fluids. The genius Navier also intuitively recognized the potential to apply these results.

About 30 years later, Irish mathematician and physicist Sir George Stokes (1819?1903) mathematically derived the fluid motion equations considering viscosity. The equation was named the "Navier-Stokes" equation after the two. Like Isaac Newton's (1642?1727) equations of motion describing object movement, this equation explains fluid flow.

In 2000, the Clay Mathematics Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, announced the Millennium Prize Problems, offering $1 million (about 1.2 billion KRW) per problem. Among them, the Navier-Stokes equation, nearly 200 years old, still lacks proof of whether a solution exists in three dimensions that satisfies the equation.

However, the greatness of science and engineering lies here. Even if the forces among three or more bodies cannot be fully solved, changes caused by groups of interacting objects can be understood.

We can simulate fluid flow using this equation. This allows us to fly airplanes, make cars run faster, and predict typhoon paths and weather. But since the exact solution to this equation is unknown, approximate solutions must be used. In weather forecasting, appropriate numerical models are applied, but even these models are imperfect. Moreover, the observational data input into predictions are "discrete," which is problematic because real-world weather is continuous.

Ultimately, prediction errors are inevitable. The harsh criticism directed at the KMA is a result of blaming them for unsolved problems. Before blaming anyone, we must understand the fundamental mistakes and causes.

KMA Predicted Worst Heatwave This Summer
Instead, Record Rainy Season and Heavy Rains Led to 'False Forecast' Dishonor
Despite AI Adoption, Accurate Weather Forecasting Remains Difficult
Efforts in Fluid Dynamics Research Continue Amidst Fluid and Variable Factors
Errors Are Inevitable; Fundamental Mistakes and Causes Must Be Understood

People in Korea are likely familiar with "Pororo." Pororo is a penguin, and among his friends is "Poby," a polar bear. Pororo and Poby get along well, but is this possible in reality?

Nowadays, just hearing the word "polar bear" evokes pity. Due to climate change, polar bears have lost their sea ice habitat and are stranded, becoming an iconic symbol of global warming.

The situation is similar in Antarctica. The loss of icebergs and glaciers is destroying habitats for Antarctic life. Sea level rise poses a major problem for human civilization. But there is an even bigger issue. Between the Antarctic and Arctic lies an ocean covering 70% of the Earth.

Both the ocean and atmosphere play significant roles in Earth's energy circulation. The ocean distributes energy supplied from the sun evenly across the globe through ocean currents. This ocean contains 3.5% salinity. Cold, salty water that is too dense to be included in sea ice in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean sinks to the deep layers.

This deep water flows south through the Atlantic, joining Antarctic deep water. It then flows into the Indian and Pacific Ocean depths, rising to the surface near the equatorial eastern Pacific. It moves westward again, passes through the Atlantic, and returns to the Arctic, completing a cycle. This massive circulation of deep water is called the "ocean conveyor belt," taking about 1,000 years to complete one cycle.

As the rainy season lengthened, some envied the weather in California or Hawaii. The upwelling of deep water occurs because strong winds near the eastern Pacific remove surface water. Cold deep water rises to fill the surface void. The clear weather in this region is due to the upwelling deep water. La Ni?a and El Ni?o are phenomena linked to this deep water upwelling in the eastern Pacific. At this point, one can intuitively understand that the connection between surface and deep ocean and the massive global circulation form the foundation of Earth's climate.

Meteorologists have already confirmed through the Navier-Stokes equation that if humanity continues without reflection and change, the end will come. Yet humanity still moves in the opposite direction. As ice melts, access to the Arctic becomes easier. Expectations for massive energy resource development and the activation of the Northwest Passage across the Arctic Ocean will attract the attention of Arctic-bordering countries and corporations. These countries and corporations tend to ignore environmental changes caused by development. Along with sovereignty issues, the desire for wealth will spark a 21st-century "New Great Game"?a new form of power struggle over territory and resources?in the Arctic. This will release carbon trapped in the polar regions into the atmosphere, accelerating global warming.

All indicators already point toward a climate crisis beyond mere climate change. Glaciers are the litmus test of all indicators. Last year, Greenland's land ice loss was nearly double the average annual loss over the past 30 years. The permafrost is also disappearing at an accelerated rate. In February, the average summer temperature in Antarctica reached a record high of 18.3 degrees Celsius. The Arctic and Antarctic are no longer romantic conquests or investment and development zones.

In the animation "Porong Porong Pororo," penguins and polar bears live harmoniously. But that is just animation. In reality, polar bears and Antarctic penguins must live separately and well.

We depend on nature to live. Therefore, we must protect our habitats. The day polar bears and Antarctic penguins actually meet, humanity witnessing that scene on Earth may already have disappeared. Nature has no reason to depend on humanity.

Byungmin Kim, Adjunct Professor, Nano Convergence School, Hallym University

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.