'Post-Abe' Suga Likely? ... Securing Support from Nikai and Aso Factions

Securing Support from One-Third of National Assembly Members
Method for Electing Party President to Be Decided Tomorrow

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Ki Ha-young] Following Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's announcement of his resignation, it is anticipated that Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga will be the frontrunner in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election scheduled for mid-next month.

According to the Yomiuri Shimbun and Kyodo News on the 31st, after the Nikai faction led by LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai decided to support Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga, the Aso faction, headed by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, also decided to back Suga in the LDP election. Both Yomiuri Shimbun and Kyodo News forecast that the ruling LDP presidential election will unfold centered around Minister Suga.

Support from Nikai and Aso factions... Securing One-Third of Diet Members

With Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga gaining the support of the second-largest faction, the Aso faction (54 members), his position has become more advantageous. Suga had expressed his intention to run in the LDP presidential election to Secretary-General Nikai the previous day and effectively secured the support of the fourth-largest faction, the Nikai faction (47 members, including both House of Councillors and House of Representatives members).

Although Suga is an independent within the party, it is known that there is a 'Suga Group' consisting of about 30 junior and mid-level lawmakers. Consequently, the number of Diet members supporting Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga amounts to approximately 130, securing the backing of one-third of the total LDP Diet members (394 members).

In Japan, which adopts a parliamentary cabinet system, the ruling party's president, elected by the House of Representatives vote, also becomes the Prime Minister. Suga's competitors, LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Fumio Kishida and former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, lead factions with only 47 and 19 Diet members respectively.

Kishida is making efforts to secure the support of the largest faction within the LDP, the Hosoda faction (98 members). It was reported that he appealed for support by meeting with Prime Minister Abe, the de facto leader of the Hosoda faction, but during the meeting on the morning of the same day, Abe reportedly said, "I will refrain from mentioning individual names," according to Yomiuri.

Interpretations suggest that Deputy Prime Minister Aso's support for Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga, who is also a political ally of Prime Minister Abe, indicates that Abe himself has Suga in mind. Although Abe initially designated Kishida as his successor, due to worsening health leading to his resignation during his term, speculation has circulated within Japanese political circles that Abe will choose Suga as his successor to lead the government until the end of his term in September next year.

Next Presidential Election Method... Bicameral General Assembly Election Likely

The method for selecting the next party president, to be decided by the LDP General Council on the 1st of next month, is expected to favor the candidate who secures support from the greater number of Diet members. The LDP presidential election can be replaced by a bicameral (House of Councillors and House of Representatives) general assembly election involving only party Diet members and representatives from prefectural federation branches (141 members) in urgent cases. In principle, the election should be conducted with an equal number of votes cast by party Diet members (394 members) and party members (394 members).

On the same day, LDP Secretary-General Nikai told reporters, "Since local representatives also participate in the bicameral general assembly, the opinions of party members will be heard," reaffirming the plan to hold this party presidential election using the bicameral general assembly method. Yomiuri added that the LDP has decided to announce the presidential election on the 8th of next month and hold the voting and counting on the 14th of the same month.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.