US JP Morgan forecasts Korea's COVID peak by end of this month... 7,000 cases expected by early November

Gangnam District Mayor Jeong Soon-gyun Reports This in COVID Briefing on the Afternoon of the 28th... Also, U.S. Biotech Company Moderna Achieves 'Success' in COVID Vaccine Trial for Elderly

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jong-il] The largest U.S. bank, JP Morgan, forecasted in a report that South Korea's COVID-19 situation will peak by the end of this month, with about 7,000 additional confirmed cases until early November, before entering a stabilization phase.

JP Morgan had predicted in February, when the Shincheonji-related infection outbreak occurred, that the peak would be reached within a month with up to 10,000 infections. At that time, the actual confirmed cases approached 10,000, earning JP Morgan praise for its accurate prediction, and there is growing interest in whether their forecast will be accurate again.

Meanwhile, Seoul city classified 392 of the 1,783 confirmed cases in the city from the 1st to the 26th of this month?accounting for 22%?as 'unknown route patients.'

This number is twice as many as the 180 patients with unclear infection routes recorded from January to July.

Jung Soon-gyun, Mayor of Gangnam District, conveyed this information during a COVID-19 briefing on the afternoon of the 28th.

Additionally, Moderna, a U.S. biotech company developing a COVID-19 vaccine, has achieved success in trials involving elderly subjects. They administered the vaccine candidate to 10 adults aged 56 to 70 and 10 adults aged 71 and older, and all subjects developed neutralizing antibodies that inactivate the virus, as well as cells that play a crucial role in the human immune system.

Experts have evaluated the formation of neutralizing antibodies and immune cells in the elderly as a significant and very meaningful advancement.

At the same time, South Korea is accelerating domestic therapeutic development. Recently, Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun announced that there is a reliable company for domestic vaccine production and that a therapeutic will be introduced within the year, raising expectations.

◆The following is the content of the COVID-19 briefing by Jung Soon-gyun, Mayor of Gangnam District, on the 28th

The cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide has surpassed 24 million. The number has increased by 2 million for two consecutive weeks. While the U.S. and Brazil, which have the highest number of cases, are on a downward trend, Japan is stabilizing, and South Korea, once considered a model for advanced quarantine, is facing a critical moment. As confirmed cases spread beyond the metropolitan area to the entire country, cases outside the metropolitan area are acting as links for secondary transmissions in local communities, and the proportion of 'unknown route patients' is approaching 20%.

Seoul city classified 392 of the 1,783 confirmed cases in the city from the 1st to the 26th of this month?accounting for 22%?as 'unknown route patients,' which is twice as many as the 180 patients with unclear infection routes recorded from January to July.

In this context, the government's announcement of quarantine measures equivalent to 'Level 2.5' social distancing for the metropolitan area from the 30th to the 6th of next month appears to be an extraordinary measure to prevent tomorrow's misfortune. Considering the economic and social ripple effects, it seems to be a carefully considered decision.

Accordingly, general restaurants, cafes, and bakeries located in the metropolitan area are only allowed to offer takeout and delivery from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. the next day. Franchise coffee shops are prohibited from allowing food and beverage consumption inside the store regardless of business hours. Additionally, these facilities must comply with core quarantine rules such as wearing masks, managing visitor logs, and maintaining a 2-meter distance between tables.

JP Morgan, the largest U.S. bank, forecasted in a report that South Korea's COVID-19 situation will peak by the end of this month, with about 7,000 additional confirmed cases until early November, before entering a stabilization phase. JP Morgan had predicted in February, when the Shincheonji-related infection outbreak occurred, that the peak would be reached within a month with up to 10,000 infections. At that time, the actual confirmed cases approached 10,000, earning JP Morgan praise for its accurate prediction, and there is growing interest in whether their forecast will be accurate again.

This weekend is seen as a turning point to gauge the spread of COVID-19 because tomorrow marks the 14th day, the end of the incubation period, since the large-scale rally held in downtown Seoul on the 15th.

In this regard, Gangnam District received additional information from Seoul city about residents classified as having stayed near the downtown rally on the 15th. Out of a total of 1,329 people, 745 who had not yet been tested were requested to undergo specimen testing. Among those previously tested, as of the 27th, 2 tested positive, 372 tested negative, and 48 are awaiting results. For 35 people who have not responded to the testing request, Gangnam Police Station and Suseo Police Station are currently tracking their whereabouts.

It may be the most dangerous incubation period for COVID-19 right now. We urge all residents to remain vigilant, aware that they and their families could be infected at any time, and to strictly follow quarantine rules such as social distancing and wearing masks this weekend as well.

◇Confirmed Cases Status

First, the status of confirmed cases in Gangnam District. With one positive case confirmed yesterday afternoon and four new cases today, the cumulative number of confirmed cases has increased to 169.

A resident of Gaepo-dong, who is a family member of a previously confirmed Gangnam resident, tested positive this morning after specimen testing at the Gangnam District Public Health Center. A resident of Daechi-dong tested positive with mild fever and cough symptoms, and two residents of Segok-dong, who had no symptoms, tested positive following specimen testing at Gangnam Severance Hospital. Another Daechi-dong resident, who was a contact of a confirmed case from another region, tested positive at a hospital in Yeongdeungpo and was transferred to the Gangnam District Public Health Center today.

Additionally, a teacher at Jinseon Girls' Middle School tested positive today, which may cause concern among residents. Gangnam District has closed Jinseon Girls' Middle School until the 30th, conducted specimen testing for all related personnel, and placed all 322 third-year students and 35 of the 74 faculty members under self-quarantine.

Gangnam District has conducted disinfection around the residences and movement paths of the confirmed cases and is currently conducting detailed epidemiological investigations.

For reference, around noon today, a woman in her 70s, a confirmed case from Dongjak District, was escorted home by police at Yeoksam Station on Subway Line 2 within the district. She was notified of her positive status by phone around 10 a.m., got off at Yeoksam Station at 11:40 a.m., and was found wandering between exits 3 and 4. Gangnam District immediately disinfected the escalators, elevators, and other routes she used at Yeoksam Station and is conducting a detailed epidemiological investigation.

◇Self-Quarantine Status

As of today, Gangnam District is managing 1,325 people under self-quarantine, including 825 overseas arrivals and 500 domestic contacts.

The number has recently been between 1,200 and 1,300, and it is expected to continue increasing until the metropolitan area cluster infections stabilize.

◇Number of Specimen Tests

The cumulative number of specimen tests conducted at the Gangnam District Public Health Center screening clinic is 45,944. Among the 500 tested yesterday, 41 were overseas arrivals and 459 were domestic residents.

Now, let's watch a video showcasing Gangnam District's major policies, including the additional distribution of about 90,000 masks to local kindergarten and high school seniors, and achieving first place among Seoul's autonomous districts in cumulative donations to the emergency disaster relief fund.

Mayor Jung Soon-gyun stated, "Moderna, a U.S. biotech company developing a COVID-19 vaccine, has achieved success in trials involving elderly subjects. They administered the vaccine candidate to 10 adults aged 56 to 70 and 10 adults aged 71 and older, and all subjects developed neutralizing antibodies that inactivate the virus, as well as cells that play a crucial role in the human immune system."

Experts have evaluated the formation of neutralizing antibodies and immune cells in the elderly as a significant and very meaningful advancement.

South Korea is also accelerating domestic therapeutic development. Recently, Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun announced that there is a reliable company for domestic vaccine production and that a therapeutic will be introduced within the year, raising expectations.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.