"Waiting for the Monsoon to End..." Aviation Industry 'Bewildered' by COVID-19 Resurgence

On the 14th, the domestic terminal at Gimpo Airport in Seoul is bustling with travelers taking advantage of the golden holiday weekend./Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporter Yu Je-hoon] The aviation industry, having just ended an unprecedented 54-day late monsoon season, is now on high alert due to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation. There are concerns that even the late vacation season demand, which was expected after the monsoon, may disappear.

According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's Aviation Information Portal System, the number of passengers using airports nationwide over the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd (combined departures and arrivals) was tentatively counted at 361,708, a decrease of about 19.6% compared to the previous week.

The primary reason for the sharp decline in domestic passengers is attributed to the 'base effect.' The comparison period of the 15th and 16th was classified as peak season due to the substitute holiday on the 17th. In fact, the passenger decrease rate compared to the same period last year (4th week of August) was only about 8%.

The problem lies in the fact that the impact of COVID-19, which is showing signs of resurgence, is expected to intensify going forward. Since the Independence Day rally on August 15, COVID-19 has been spreading again, leading to a series of flight cancellations. An airport official said, "The passenger decrease last weekend seems to be more due to the end of the peak season than COVID-19," but added, "The effects of the COVID-19 spread will now begin in earnest."

The industry is unable to hide its bewilderment. Despite the expansion of domestic passengers, the late monsoon and low fares have prevented significant gains, and the resurgence of COVID-19 raises concerns that the remaining vacation season demand could suffer considerable damage.

In fact, from the 1st to the 17th, the number of domestic passengers using 14 airports nationwide (excluding Incheon Airport) was counted at 3,537,270, an increase of 7.7% compared to the previous year, but low-cost carriers (LCCs) responded that it "fell short of expectations." Although domestic supply increased significantly and some international demand shifted to domestic flights due to international flight suspensions, profitability was limited due to cutthroat competition and the monsoon's impact.

Therefore, LCCs had pinned their hopes on the semi-peak season continuing through September after the holidays. An industry official said, "We were indeed expecting a 'final push' based on demand for late travel after the monsoon," but lamented, "At this point, it seems difficult to even expect that."

The industry is greatly concerned about the possibility of social distancing levels being raised. If upgraded to level 3, a large-scale demand contraction, similar to the 'Shincheonji Church of Jesus cluster infection incident' in March, would be inevitable. In that case, the sharply increased domestic flights could backfire. A representative from a domestic LCC said, "If social distancing is raised to level 3, a rapid contraction in demand will be unavoidable."

There is also interest in whether this spreading trend will affect international flights, which are gradually reopening. In fact, T'way Air resumed its Daegu-Yanji route on the 21st, restarting international flights after several months, but faced an embarrassing situation when a COVID-19 positive case (Chinese national) was confirmed on the first day. A T'way Air official said, "The individual followed normal procedures such as quarantine certification but was diagnosed positive locally," adding, "Crew members and contacts tested negative, and no separate notice has been received from Chinese aviation authorities."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.