KOSPI Surpasses 2400: "Will Break Record High" VS "Temporary Surge"

Multiple Securities Firms Forecast Additional Gains This Year... However, Concerns Arise Due to Short-Term Sharp Rise

On the 11th, when the KOSPI index surpassed the 2400 mark for the first time in 2 years and 2 months, dealers were working in the Hana Bank dealing room in Euljiro, Seoul. Photo by Mo Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Kum Boryeong] On the 11th, the KOSPI surpassed the 2400 mark during the trading session, and many securities firms forecast a high possibility of further increases. However, opinions were divided on whether the KOSPI's all-time high record of 2607 could be broken within this year.

Korea Investment & Securities raised the upper limit of the expected KOSPI band to 2480 from the previous day. Initially, they anticipated a correction in the third quarter and a rebound in the fourth quarter due to weakening policy effects, but second-quarter corporate earnings exceeded expectations. Additionally, with the continued spread of COVID-19, they expect the government's stimulus measures and liquidity-driven market to persist.

Other firms also revised the upper limit of their expected KOSPI bands. Samsung Securities and Shinhan Investment Corp. raised their targets to 2500, higher than before, showing expectations for further gains. Hyundai Motor Securities predicted a level above 2600.

Abundant liquidity was cited as the biggest factor driving the rise. According to the Korea Financial Investment Association, as of the 7th, investor deposits amounted to 49.22 trillion won. Compared to 29 trillion won six months ago, about 20 trillion won has flowed into the stock market. Oh Hyun-seok, head of Samsung Securities Research Center, analyzed, "Liquidity will drive stock price increases in the second half. If fundamental recovery materializes next year, the pace of increase will slow, but the bull market is expected to continue through next year."

Hyundai Motor Securities predicted a new chapter in KOSPI history. Kim Jung-won, head of Hyundai Motor Securities Investment Strategy Team, emphasized, "In this rising market, the KOSPI is expected to surpass its previous high of 2607. Abundant liquidity, fiscal policies, and expectations for improved earnings in major countries remain positive factors."

Concerns about short-term rapid rises were also raised. Kim Hyung-ryeol, head of Kyobo Securities Research Center, said, "Technical corrections due to short-term rapid rises can occur at any time," but added, "There is no reason to be disappointed. The favorable investment environment for investors is expected to last about five years, so there is no need to rush."

There is also analysis that the index is already at a high point. Kim Hak-gyun, head of Shin Young Securities Research Center, stated, "Although a temporary overshooting is possible, the appropriate stock price level is considered to be around 2100 to 2200," and added, "Downside risks in the second half include corporate regulations and potential tax increases after the U.S. presidential election."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.