63% of Seoul Citizens Expect Tense Inter-Korean Relations to Persist Until Year-End

"Thorough Preparation Between North and South Needed for Gradual Unification" 54.2%
Most Common Unification Timeline: "Within 20 Years" at 25.0%

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] Six out of ten Seoul citizens predicted that inter-Korean relations would remain tense until the end of this year. Among them, four out of ten responded that unification between North and South Korea would be possible within 20 years, while one out of ten believed it could happen within 10 years.

On the 27th, Seoul City announced the results of a survey conducted from the 10th to the 14th of this month targeting 1,000 citizens regarding current issues in inter-Korean relations, in commemoration of the 67th anniversary of the Armistice Agreement.

The survey results showed that 79.2% of respondents had a negative outlook on inter-Korean relations until the end of this year, with 63.0% expecting the current tense state to be maintained and 16.2% anticipating deterioration. Only 15.0% believed relations would improve.

Regarding the most necessary measures to ease tensions between North and South Korea, 44.8% of respondents hoped for the resumption of North Korea-US talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. This was followed by "holding inter-Korean summits" (31.8%) and "legislation and strengthening enforcement to ban leaflet distribution to North Korea" (14.3%).

When asked whether it is necessary to continuously promote inter-Korean exchange and cooperation projects to improve relations and ease tensions, positive responses accounted for 76.0% (34.6% very necessary, 41.4% somewhat necessary), surpassing negative opinions (24.0%).

Regarding perceptions of unification, the opinion that "unification should be achieved gradually through thorough preparation between North and South Korea" was the highest at 54.2%. The view that "if exchanges between North and South Korea are freely conducted, unification is unnecessary" followed at 30.1%.

As for the possible timing of unification, similar to last year's survey result (25.6%), "within 20 years" was the most common answer at 25.0%. However, the opinion that unification could happen "within 10 years" decreased from 19.5% in 2019 to 9.9% this year, nearly a 10 percentage point drop. Meanwhile, the view that unification is impossible increased from 17.0% to 22.7%, a 5.7 percentage point rise, indicating a growing belief that unification will not occur soon.

By age group, those in their 20s and 30s most frequently answered "more than 30 years" at 31.2% and 28.1%, respectively, while those in their 40s and 50s most often chose "within 20 years" at 30.4% and 35.7%, respectively. Notably, 25.1% of people in their 20s and 26.1% in their 30s also expressed the opinion that unification is impossible, showing a negative perception of unification among younger generations.

Regarding leaflet distribution to North Korea, 67.4% believed that leaflet distribution should be stopped, surpassing the 18.6% who thought it should continue. Additionally, when asked about the necessity of local governments' roles in easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula and improving inter-Korean relations, 58.0% agreed, which was higher than the 42.0% who disagreed.

In particular, 60.3% responded that it is necessary to support North Korea with the "Seoul-type standard quarantine model (S-quarantine)" for COVID-19 prevention on a humanitarian basis. Furthermore, 57.1% believed that jointly bidding for the 2032 Seoul-Pyongyang Olympics would help improve inter-Korean relations and promote exchanges.

Hwang Bang-yeol, head of Seoul City's Inter-Korean Cooperation Promotion Division, stated, "Despite the increasingly uncertain inter-Korean relations compared to last year, we confirmed that positive opinions on COVID-19 quarantine cooperation and the joint bid for the 2032 Seoul-Pyongyang Olympics were higher than negative opinions. Seoul City will actively reflect this situation and continue to promote the inter-Korean exchange and cooperation projects that have been underway."

This survey was conducted online by Seoul City through Korea Research, targeting 1,000 adult men and women aged 19 to 69 residing in Seoul. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.