[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] USFK Reduction Rumors - ④ Execution VS Inability

▲ 'Key Resolve' US-ROK joint military exercise participating US soldiers

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] Our Ministry of National Defense is reiterating its existing position regarding the rumors of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) reduction, stating, "The Republic of Korea and the United States have not yet discussed any reduction of USFK." It cites the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which prohibits reducing USFK below the current level of 28,500 personnel, as the basis for this stance.

President Trump can utilize an exemption clause in the NDAA passed by the U.S. Congress to bypass this restriction. The exemption requires the Secretary of Defense to prove that the action aligns with U.S. and allied national security interests and that consultations with allied countries have taken place. Through consultations with the ally, South Korea, pressure can be maximized and, at a decisive moment, a unilateral notification could be issued.

A practical option for reducing USFK is to not deploy the follow-on forces of the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team of the U.S. Army’s 1st Infantry Division. The 2nd Armored Brigade, which was deployed to South Korea via Gwangyang Port in Jeollanam-do last February, is scheduled to complete its nine-month rotation and return to Fort Hood, Texas, by the end of this year. Halting this nine-month rotational deployment would avoid additional costs, making it the most realistic reduction card. Some speculate that strategic weapons of USFK could be withdrawn under the pretext of enhancing strategic flexibility. This could lead to downsizing the U.S. 7th Air Force headquarters at Osan Air Base, which operates U-2 reconnaissance aircraft, RC-7B reconnaissance aircraft, 24 F-16C/D fighters, and A-10 aircraft.

These factors have led to calls for preparing for the actualization of USFK reduction. President Trump reversed his previous stance and decided last month to withdraw 9,500 troops from the 34,500 U.S. forces stationed in Germany. Considering this, it cannot be ruled out that President Trump might use the possibility of USFK reduction as a bargaining chip in defense cost-sharing negotiations to pressure South Korea and leverage it as an election issue in the U.S. presidential race. The rationale of bringing troops stationed in overseas risk areas back to the mainland and increasing defense cost contributions from free-riding allies could be used as an election strategy to benefit U.S. national interests.

On the other hand, our Ministry of National Defense continues to repeat its existing position on the USFK reduction rumors, stating, "The Republic of Korea and the United States have not yet discussed any reduction of USFK." It again cites the U.S. NDAA, which prohibits reducing USFK below the current level of 28,500 personnel, as the basis.

The U.S. Senate passed the $740 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) on the 23rd (Eastern Time), which includes provisions prohibiting the withdrawal and reduction of U.S. forces stationed in Germany. The House bill includes a clause that prohibits reducing U.S. forces in Germany or other parts of Europe unless the Secretary of Defense certifies that such reductions would not affect the security of the U.S. and its allies. The NDAA, having passed both the House and Senate, will be enacted upon President Trump's signature. Domestic experts predict this will significantly quell controversies related to USFK reduction.

Some speculate that to counter China and Russia, only air and naval forces will maintain mobility rather than ground forces in USFK.

China has decided to block U.S. naval vessels from entering the First Island Chain (connecting the Philippines, Taiwan, Okinawa, and southern Japan) after 2025. Although the sea between China and the First Island Chain is international waters open to free navigation, China is acting as if it were its internal waters. This is part of China's Anti-Access Area Denial (A2AD) strategy. China aims to prevent U.S. Navy access at the 'Anti-Access (A2)' stage and destroy U.S. ships with missiles at the 'Area Denial (AD)' stage after entry.

Russia is also a concern. The U.S. and Russia have terminated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). The INF Treaty, signed in 1987 by then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, banned the development and deployment of ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km. The only remaining agreement is the New START treaty, which expires in February next year.

The New START treaty was signed in April 2010 by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (current Prime Minister) and came into effect in February the following year. It limits deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 and delivery vehicles such as missiles and strategic bombers to 700 or fewer. However, with the prior unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty and the upcoming expiration of New START, no nuclear arms control agreements will remain between the two countries.

Shin Jong-woo, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "The U.S. military may consider emergency rotational deployments of USFK, but ground forces take a long time to deploy, making it difficult to realize. However, the U.S. military could use the new rotational deployment concept as a pressure card linked to increased defense costs."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.