UBS Raises China's Growth Forecast to 2.5% for a V-Shaped Recovery This Year

Q3 at 5.5%, Q4 at 6% Proposed

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Sun-mi] Global investment bank UBS has raised its full-year growth forecast for the Chinese economy to 2.5% this year, following a 'V-shaped' rebound in the second quarter that overcame the COVID-19 crisis.

According to Bloomberg on the 24th, Wang Tao, UBS's chief China economist, released a report adjusting this year's Chinese economic growth forecast up by 1 percentage point from the previous 1.5% to 2.5%.

Economist Wang said, "China's economic growth rate is expected to expand from 5.5% in the third quarter to 6% in the fourth quarter," anticipating a clear recovery in China's economy.

Wang explained that the upward revision of this year's growth forecast reflects the second quarter growth rate of 3.2%, which exceeded expectations, as well as continued expansion in domestic consumption, stable real estate, and infrastructure investment in China.

However, he added, "The biggest risk hindering the rebound is the resurgence of COVID-19 outbreaks both inside and outside China."

UBS's upward revision of China's economic growth forecast for this year is significantly higher than the 1.0% forecast released last month by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The trend of global investment banks and economic analysis institutions revising up their forecasts for the Chinese economy has intensified following the announcement of second-quarter growth rates that greatly exceeded expectations. Oxford Economics also raised its growth forecast for China this year from 2% to 2.5%, considering the strong rebound in the second quarter.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.