"Post-COVID-19, Population Net Inflow to Seoul Metropolitan Area Doubles... Increased Risk of Regional Disappearance"

Employment Information Service 'Post COVID-19 and Regional Opportunities'

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bo-kyung] An analysis has emerged that the influx of population into the Seoul metropolitan area has increased due to the impact of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), accelerating the risk of regional extinction in local areas.

On the 6th, the Korea Employment Information Service released a report titled "Post-COVID-19 and Regional Opportunities" containing these findings.

Analyzing population movement statistics from the National Statistical Portal, it was found that the net inflow population into the Seoul metropolitan area in March-April this year was 27,500, more than double compared to the same period last year. By age group, more than three-quarters of the inflow population to the metropolitan area were in their 20s. Among the metropolitan area inflow population in March-April, ▲ages 20-24 accounted for 43.4% (11,925 people) ▲ages 25-29 accounted for 32.1% (8,816 people), making the proportion of those in their 20s 75.5%.

According to the report, the risk of regional extinction in local areas has also accelerated due to COVID-19. Based on 228 cities, counties, and districts nationwide, the number of extinction-risk areas increased by 12 from 93 (40.8%) in May last year to 105 (46.1%) in April this year. This figure shows a steep upward trend compared to the increase of 4 areas each year from May 2017 to May 2018 and from May 2018 to May 2019.

In particular, the newly entered extinction-risk areas include many 'si-bu' (city districts) such as Yeoju-si (0.467) and Pocheon-si (0.499) in Gyeonggi-do, Jecheon-si (0.457) in Chungbuk, and Muan-gun (0.488) and Naju-si in Jeonnam. Researcher Lee Sang-ho of the Employment Information Service stated, "Most of the 'gun-bu' (county areas) have already entered the extinction-risk stage, and now the entry of 'si-bu' into the extinction-risk stage is becoming full-scale."

The extinction-risk index is defined as "the number of women aged 20-39 in a region divided by the number of elderly people aged 65 or older in that region." The report defines an extinction-risk area as one with an extinction-risk index below 0.5.

COVID-19 has also had differential impacts on regional economies and employment deterioration. The manufacturing operation rate index fell from 68 in March this year to 63 in April, then further dropped to 54 in May, marking the lowest point since the 2009 financial crisis. By region, Daegu, which had the highest number of COVID-19 confirmed cases, recorded 34 in March → 35 in April → 29 in May.

The deterioration in employment conditions was confirmed through the employment insurance database (DB). As of April this year, Daegu was the only region showing a negative growth rate of -0.6% in the trend of insured persons by region.

Researcher Lee emphasized, "After COVID-19, the youth population movement from local areas to the Seoul metropolitan area is expanding, accelerating the risk of regional extinction. Since the impact of COVID-19 varies by industry and region, the response system to overcome the crisis must also differ according to the characteristics of the industry and region."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.