... "Among 13 Clinical Trials... Supply Possible as Early as Next Year"

Bank of Korea 'Overseas Economic Focus'

[Asia Economy Reporter Eunbyeol Kim] As the 'prospects for developing a novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) vaccine' are becoming a global economic outlook, some companies have already started clinical trials, raising expectations. There are increasing forecasts that mass production and supply of some vaccines will be possible within next year.

According to the Bank of Korea's 'Overseas Economic Focus' on the 28th, as of the 22nd, 142 vaccines are being developed worldwide, of which 13 are in clinical trials. Additionally, vaccines scheduled to start clinical trials within this year are also awaiting.

The vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford research team in the UK is undergoing phase 2-3 clinical trials, while in the US, Moderna, Inovio, and Pfizer are conducting phase 1-2 clinical trials. China also has vaccines undergoing phase 1-2 clinical trials.

Overseas Economic Focus, citing a Morgan Stanley report, stated, "Considering vaccine development, production capacity, and schedule, four candidate substances are expected to receive emergency use authorization by the end of the year and submit marketing authorization applications in the first quarter of next year," adding, "In this case, supply of more than 1 billion vaccines will be possible by the first quarter of next year."

Recently, among experts, regarding COVID-19 vaccine development, unprecedented cooperation and development competition among countries are taking place, and the view that development will be accelerated because the COVID-19 virus gene is 80% identical genetically to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is gaining traction.

However, opinions differ on the timing of mass production after development. There is a possibility that the vaccine's efficacy may be limited or safety issues may arise, and in such cases, full normalization of economic activities would be difficult to expect. Goldman Sachs stated, "Due to the application of expedited procedures in vaccine development, there is a risk that safety issues may be overlooked." Currently, the best-case scenario is vaccine development within this year, and the US has announced plans to produce about 100 million doses by November to December if effectiveness is confirmed.

The current recovery path of the US economy is predicted to follow various trajectories such as V-shaped (rapid recovery), U-shaped (Nike-shaped, U-shaped), and double-dip recession (W-shaped). Among these, the most significant factors are the progression of COVID-19 and vaccine development. If vaccine development is delayed, concerns about virus infection will increase, hindering the recovery of consumer sentiment, and a second pandemic (global outbreak) may occur, causing another recession.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.