Bolton Memoir Controversy... Will North Korea-US Dialogue Drift Prolongedly?

Expert Analysis on North Korea-US Talks
"US Reaffirms Hardline Approach to North Korea... No Progress Without Denuclearization"
"Bolton's Prejudices and Biases Exposed... Expected to Have Little Impact"

The cover of the memoir "The Room Where It Happened" by John Bolton, former U.S. National Security Advisor, photographed on the 18th (local time) against the backdrop of the White House in the United States.

The memoir of John Bolton, the former U.S. National Security Council (NSC) advisor known for his hardline stance on North Korea, set to be published on the 23rd (local time), is causing a megaton-level shockwave in South Korea-North Korea-U.S. diplomacy. Korea experts have diagnosed that the already deadlocked and difficult situation on the Korean Peninsula is becoming even more uncertain as sensitive remarks made during negotiations between leaders are fully exposed. However, on the other hand, some voices within the U.S. argue that it merely reaffirms the 'hawkish' stance within the U.S.

Experts first emphasized that since the entrenched approach of mainstream U.S. hardliners on North Korea has been reaffirmed, efforts must be made to find breakthroughs in inter-Korean relations while simultaneously advancing the denuclearization process. The hardliners, represented by former advisor Bolton, have been extremely cautious about improving inter-Korean relations. They consistently maintain the position that depending on the situation, a preemptive strike or a Libya-style model of "denuclearization first, sanctions relief later" should be applied to North Korea, so this must always be kept in mind.

Professor Jeong Dae-jin of Ajou University, while presupposing that the memoir reflects Bolton’s personal perspective, said, "Nevertheless, it confirmed the fundamental distrust of North Korea held by the conservative mainstream of the U.S. Republican Party," and analyzed, "Ultimately, it was confirmed that if the essence of denuclearization is not transcended, North Korea-U.S. relations cannot progress even an inch." He added, "North Korea-U.S. relations will enter an adjustment period through the U.S. presidential election process, but it must be remembered that they can fluctuate at any time during the denuclearization phase."

There were also voices suggesting that it is unnecessary to view the impact of Bolton’s memoir too pessimistically. Since South Korea has led the South Korea-North Korea-U.S. relations, efforts to find new opportunities must continue. Professor Hwang Jae-ho of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies explained, "Through Bolton’s memoir, we could confirm South Korea’s role so far," and said, "Until the U.S. presidential election, we should focus on managing the current situation on the Korean Peninsula and seek new opportunities."

Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies pointed out that various controversies arising from Bolton’s claims are unrelated to the essence of North Korea-U.S. denuclearization negotiations. For example, debates over whether the idea for the first North Korea-U.S. summit was proposed by Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, or Chung Eui-yong, Director of the National Security Office, are not the core issue.

Professor Yang said, "It is not important whose strategy it was, but that South Korea played an intermediary role in gathering North Korea and U.S. opinions and that the North Korea-U.S. summit was realized," and analyzed, "Bolton’s memoir can serve as an opportunity to recognize that it was not that North Korea was deceived by the Moon Jae-in administration, but that President Moon and his aides sometimes came up with creative ideas and made countless efforts to persuade the U.S. to achieve results in North Korea-U.S. dialogue."

It is also noteworthy that the Washington political circles, which have long doubted North Korea’s denuclearization intentions, view the impact of this memoir as low. Gary Samore, former White House Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction, said in an interview with Voice of America (VOA) on the 22nd, "(Bolton’s memoir) only confirms what many people had already suspected." Evans Revere, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, also told VOA, "It did not reveal any secrets; it only showed Bolton’s own perspective and evaluation."

Paradoxically, there is also a prospect that the possibility of the 'top-down diplomacy' preferred by North Korea can be found. Bolton claimed in his memoir that North Korea consistently tried to separate President Trump and his aides, and that such attempts were thwarted by him. North Korea has actually labeled Bolton as the biggest enemy of North Korea-U.S. dialogue, hurling insults such as "human garbage" and "vampire" at him.

Mark Fitzpatrick, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation, told VOA on the 22nd, "North Korea will read this book and be convinced that President Trump has a favorable view of Kim Jong-un and how much Bolton hated North Korea," and analyzed, "They will be happy that Bolton left and Trump remains." North Korea can maximize its interests by exploiting the disappearance of hawks like Bolton and Trump’s preference for events.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.