Biden Clearly Leading by a Wide Margin in Approval Ratings... "Look at Four Years Ago"

Biden Leads Trump by Large Margin in Approval Ratings
Shows Advantage in Battleground States, Signaling 'Green Light'
US Election System Could Reverse Outcome Anytime
Clinton Also Lost Despite Leading Polls Four Years Ago

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] In the U.S. presidential election polls, former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate, is shown to be significantly ahead of President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. However, the unique characteristics of the U.S. electoral system, where a candidate can lose despite winning more votes, and the election schedule with more than four months remaining, still pose variables. Notably, the fact that four years ago around this time Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was leading then-Republican candidate Trump also makes it difficult to be optimistic about Biden's victory.

According to the analysis of aggregated polls by RealClearPolitics, a U.S. political website, on the 18th (local time), former Vice President Biden received an average support of 50.1%. In contrast, President Trump was recorded to have 41.3% support. Since May, Biden has never trailed President Trump in nationwide polls. Some polls show a double-digit lead, indicating a significant advantage in terms of support.

However, due to the nature of the U.S. electoral system, it is difficult to predict Biden's lead based solely on poll results. According to RealClearPolitics, in June 2016, a month before the last presidential election, there were 26 polls conducted, all showing Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with higher support, yet she lost the election.

The United States, as a federal country, uses an Electoral College system with 538 electors, where the outcome is effectively decided by the results in battleground states rather than the nationwide popular vote. Due to the winner-takes-all system, winning narrowly in battleground states secures all their electors. At that time, Clinton won 65.85 million votes nationwide (48.2%) compared to Trump's 62.98 million votes (46.1%), a difference of 2.86 million votes, but suffered a heavy defeat in the Electoral College. Despite widespread expectations of Trump's disadvantage, he was able to overturn the race by winning key battleground states.

There are analyses suggesting this time might be different. Former Vice President Biden is leading in most of the battleground states that decide the U.S. presidential election outcome. According to a poll conducted by CNBC and Change Research (from the 12th to 14th), Biden leads in all major battleground states. In a poll of 2,408 voters in Wisconsin (10 electors), Florida (29), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), and Arizona (11), Biden received 48% support, ahead of Trump's 45%. State-level polls also show Biden leading Trump in all six states. Considering that Trump won all these six states in the last election, this represents a significant change. Some polls showing Biden's support exceeding 50% also differ from four years ago.

However, since the battleground state results remain fluid, it is advised to watch the trends carefully. U.S. election expert Nate Silver noted that the two candidates are still neck and neck in battleground states and suggested that if the campaign intensifies, Trump could gain an advantage. He pointed out that the battleground states where Biden shows a lead exceeding his nationwide support margin are only Colorado, Maine, New Mexico, Virginia, and Michigan. In battleground states where Biden's support is below his national average, there is a possibility of Trump making a comeback.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.