[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Unusual North Korea... Movements Detected in Wonsan

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] Concerns are growing over additional ballistic missile provocations as movements of a transporter erector launcher (TEL) and a launch vehicle presumed to be a short-range ballistic missile have been detected in the Wonsan area of North Korea. This is because North Korea has focused on launching key new weapons centered around the Wonsan area, and it may conduct additional tests of launch vehicles that have not yet completed development.

The movements in the Wonsan area were detected amid the recent strengthening of North Korea surveillance and monitoring posture by South Korean and U.S. military authorities. Our military has mobilized reconnaissance and surveillance assets, including the airborne early warning and control aircraft 'Peace Eye,' to conduct surveillance on North Korea. The U.S. Forces Korea is also known to have deployed the Guardrail (RC-12X) reconnaissance aircraft since the 13th. The Guardrail is a reconnaissance aircraft specialized in signals intelligence (SIGINT) missions against North Korea.

A military official emphasized on the 15th, "We are monitoring North Korean military movements by deploying surveillance assets in the air and sea, including the frontline and contact areas." On land, surveillance is maintained through thermal observation devices (TOD) and SIGINT equipment, while in the air and at sea, the surveillance system is maintained using the airborne early warning and control aircraft 'Peace Eye' and Aegis destroyers.

North Korea has recently been focusing on test launches of four new weapon types: new tactical guided missiles (tactical guided weapons, North Korean version of Iskander), super-large multiple rocket launchers, new large-caliber guided multiple rocket launchers, and the North Korean version of ATACMS. Most of these missiles were test-fired in the Wonsan area. In 2018, North Korea test-fired the new tactical guided missile in July and also test-fired the super-large multiple rocket launcher in the same month.

Military experts analyze that North Korea has already operationalized the new tactical guided missile and the super-large multiple rocket launcher. The 600mm-class super-large multiple rocket launcher launched by North Korea in March operates as a multiple launch rocket system that bundles several launch tubes and fires multiple shells simultaneously at the target. The firing time of the 600mm super-large multiple rocket launcher launched by North Korea has been decreasing. When North Korea fired the super-large multiple rocket launcher in September last year, it announced a firing time of '19 minutes.' This was shortened to '3 minutes' in October and '30 seconds' in November. This has led to analyses that North Korea has already operationalized the weapon with reduced firing time, enabling surprise attack capability, and is conducting proficiency training.

Therefore, if North Korea launches missiles in the Wonsan area, it is highly likely to be the new large-caliber guided multiple rocket launcher or the North Korean version of ATACMS, which have not yet completed development. There are also expectations that the military organization will be reorganized once the development of the 'new four-weapon set' is completed.

North Korea may also deliberately showcase the TEL. In March, North Korea mounted and launched an Iskander-class missile on a TEL. The existing TELs of North Korea were made with eight wheels, but in March, a new TEL analyzed as a tank-tracked type was observed. The tank-tracked TEL is highly mobile and can operate in rough terrains such as rivers and hills, making it easier to quickly conceal after launch.

The military authorities are currently focusing on the movements of North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un. Chairman Kim did not attend the launch site in March. It was the first time this year that he did not attend any of the four short-range missile launch sites. Experts interpret this as meaning there is no longer a need to attend because the super-large multiple rocket launcher has been completed. If Chairman Kim attends additional test launches, it would be interpreted as meaning that development is complete and operationalization is finished.

Some speculate that if Chairman Kim moves to the Seondeok area in South Hamgyong Province, he might launch a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) or unveil a new 3,000-ton class SLBM submarine. South Hamgyong Province is an area densely populated with naval shipyards, military factories, and military units. The Korean Central News Agency reported in July last year that Chairman Kim inspected a newly built submarine. Although the North did not disclose the shipyard location at that time, the Sinpo Shipyard is considered the most likely candidate.

Shin Jong-woo, senior analyst at the Korea Defense and Security Forum (KODEF), said, "Considering that North Korea confirms reliability, stability, and combat capability after missile test launches, it will continue to test-fire missiles that have not yet been completed," adding, "This is a typical missile development pattern of North Korea."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.