"North Korea May Cancel Singapore Declaration... Inter-Korean Summit Needed"

Forum on Korean Peninsula Situation Hosted by Unification Research Institute
"Possibility of Nuclear Force Enhancement Declaration in Second Half of Year"

President Moon Jae-in and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un are shaking hands on May 26, 2018, at the Tongilgak in the northern area of Panmunjom before the 2nd Inter-Korean Summit.

As North Korea declared the closure of all inter-Korean communication channels and signaled a gradual collapse of inter-Korean relations, voices are growing within the government urging the prompt holding of an inter-Korean summit through measures such as dispatching a special envoy to North Korea.

At a forum held on the 10th by the Korea Institute for National Unification under the theme "Post-Corona Era, Korean Peninsula Situation and Peace Process," Jo Han-beom, senior research fellow at the institute, stated, "There is a need to quickly resume inter-Korean contact, and efforts should focus on holding a practical inter-Korean summit without being constrained by timing, location, or protocol."

He added, "We should also consider ways to induce North Korea's response by dispatching a high-level special envoy," emphasizing, "Using symbolic occasions such as June 15, August 15, and September 19 to hold an inter-Korean summit is necessary to restore trust in inter-Korean relations and to lead North Korea-U.S. denuclearization negotiations."

Recently, North Korea has been launching a rapid and sudden offensive against South Korea, led by First Deputy Director Kim Yo-jong, making it unlikely that the hardline stance will be reversed, but there remains some room for maneuver.

Hong Min, director of the North Korea Research Division, said, "By not having Chairman Kim Jong-un take the forefront, it appears that there is still room to reverse the situation in terms of the 'summit friendship' between President Moon Jae-in and Chairman Kim Jong-un."

Advice was also given that even if inter-Korean dialogue resumes in the future, a thorough understanding of North Korea's demands is necessary to achieve substantial progress rather than mere stalemate.

Director Hong analyzed, "North Korea's declaration of a hardline shift toward South Korea stems from dissatisfaction with South Korea's approach to North Korea, which avoids addressing fundamental issues." He said, "The essence of the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration and the September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration agreements is to create a Korean Peninsula without war by mutually reducing military threats and transforming the armistice system into a peace system."

He continued, "However, since these agreements, aside from the initial implementation of military agreements to prevent accidental clashes on land, air, and sea, there have been virtually no achievements," explaining, "South Korea's passive attitude under the framework prioritizing South Korea-U.S. cooperation, emphasizing North Korea-U.S. negotiations and denuclearization as the priority, has been a major cause of North Korea's distrust."

Director Hong emphasized, "A bold shift in framing is needed to approach inter-Korean relations not as subordinate to North Korea-U.S. relations or denuclearization, but in terms of 'mutual security guarantees' between South and North Korea."

He stated, "The Korean Peninsula issue requires a comprehensive approach from the perspective of 'mutual security guarantees,' and cooperative threat reduction should be promoted by linking the phased arms control (disarmament) of nuclear and conventional weapons with cooperative items in non-military fields in a mutually reinforcing manner."

On the 10th, the Korea Institute for National Unification held a forum on the theme of "Post-Corona Era, the Situation on the Korean Peninsula and the Peace Process."

If inter-Korean dialogue and communication fail to find a turning point and only move toward a hardline stance, opinions differ on what actions North Korea might take.

Jeong Seong-yoon, research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, predicted, "North Korea may declare the resumption of nuclear force enhancement in the second half of this year or officially announce the termination of the 2018 North Korea-U.S. Singapore Agreement." He added, "July 27 (Victory Day), September 9 (Foundation Day), and October 10 (Workers' Party Foundation Day) could be significant moments," and noted, "Since North Korea has recently emphasized artillery roles, attention should also be paid to June 20 (Artillery Day) for North Korea's messages."

Senior Research Fellow Jo said, "North Korea has already announced follow-up measures such as the complete closure of Mount Kumgang tourism and Kaesong Industrial Complex, and the termination of the September 19 military agreement," expressing concern that "if the South does not respond quickly and promptly, various options such as provocations at sea could be executed."

On the other hand, Director Hong predicted that significant military provocations or major actions by North Korea are unlikely to occur in the short term. He said, "Although North Korea cut off communication lines as a retaliatory measure for accumulated grievances, it suggested a phased response," adding, "This means they will respond while observing the South's reactions and attitudes."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.