"COVID-19 Suppression Measures Prevented 530 Million Infections... Without Measures, 38 Million Would Have Been Infected in Han"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] An analysis has revealed that without active suppression measures to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), 530 million people in six countries?South Korea, the United States, China, France, Italy, and Iran?would have been exposed to infection. It is estimated that in South Korea, 7 out of 10 people would have been infected. Measures such as social distancing, workplace closures, and travel bans were effective in preventing large-scale outbreaks.

Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) published a report containing these findings in the scientific journal Nature on the 8th (local time). The research team analyzed the effects of COVID-19 suppression policies using 1,717 data points from the six countries. According to the study, these countries avoided a total of 62 million positive cases through strong suppression measures and testing. Including cases where individuals were infected but did not get tested and thus remained unaware of their infection, approximately 530 million people benefited from active suppression policies.

The researchers stated, "Without suppression policies, the initial spread of COVID-19 would have shown an exponential daily increase of about 38%," and added, "We found that infection suppression policies significantly slowed this growth."

By country, it is estimated that only in China, 285 million infections were prevented, followed by 60 million in the United States, 54 million in Iran, 49 million in Italy, and 45 million in France. In South Korea, 38 million infections were avoided due to suppression measures. Considering that South Korea's registered population was approximately 51.85 million last year, more than 7 out of 10 people (73.3%) were able to avoid COVID-19 infection through suppression measures.

Solomon Xiang, director of the UC Berkeley Global Policy Institute, said, "Without these (suppression) policies, life in April and May would have been very different," and analyzed, "The global response to curb the spread of COVID-19 saved many more lives in a short period."

According to The Washington Post (WP), researchers at Imperial College London also published a study in Nature on the same day, reporting that lockdowns in 11 European countries, including the UK, saved 3.1 million lives and reduced infection rates by an average of 82%. The Imperial College London researchers analyzed that so far, only about 3?4% of the population in the studied countries have been infected with COVID-19.

The researchers stated, "This is only the beginning of the pandemic. We are still far from achieving herd immunity. If all interventions and precautions are not maintained, the risk of resurgence will become a reality." They also noted, "We are not saying that countries must remain locked down forever," and explained that economic activities can be partially normalized as long as some measures to suppress COVID-19 spread are implemented.

WP evaluated this study as showing that "although aggressive and unprecedented lockdowns caused massive economic damage and job losses, they were effective in stopping the exponential spread of COVID-19." However, the researchers noted that school closures as a measure to prevent COVID-19 spread have not been proven to have a significant suppression effect, and WP reported that further research on the effects of school closures is needed.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.