Hyundai Research Institute: "U.S. Economy Expected to Improve in Second Half... COVID Resurgence and U.S.-China Dispute Are Variables"

[Asia Economy Reporter Yu Je-hoon] Although the U.S. economy is expected to show signs of improvement from the second half of this year, it has been analyzed that the resurgence of COVID-19 and the U.S.-China hegemonic competition could become variables.

Hyundai Research Institute stated in the 'U.S. Economic Review Report in the Aftermath of COVID-19,' published on the 2nd, "The U.S. economy is expected to rebound from the second half of the year, but since the possibility of a COVID-19 resurgence and the rekindling of U.S.-China disputes cannot be ruled out, it is necessary to prepare countermeasures."

According to the institute, the U.S. economic growth rate this year is predicted to record a decline in the -5% range. The institute added, "The economy will contract further in the second quarter, when the impact of COVID-19 is fully reflected, but thanks to strong U.S. government economic policies, it is expected to improve in the second half of the year."

The institute also noted, "Although the largest-ever monetary easing and fiscal expansion policies were implemented simultaneously, there will be limitations," and pointed out, "In the long term, economic growth and corporate performance may deteriorate."

In fact, according to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the fiscal deficit ratio relative to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to surge from 4.6% last year to 17.9% this year and reach about 9.8% next year. The federal government debt ratio relative to GDP is expected to sharply increase to 101% this year and reach 108% next year.

Regarding our government's measures, the institute stated, "In preparation for the possibility that the U.S. economic recession may last longer than expected, domestic fundamentals should be strengthened and uncertainties in the financial market should be blocked," and added, "While responding to risk factors that may arise from the rekindling of U.S.-China conflicts, new opportunities should be discovered and actively utilized."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.