Government: "Kim Jong-un Engaged in Routine Work"... Is He Timing a Dramatic Appearance?
Ministry of Unification: "Exchange of Letters Between Leaders Proves Normal Operations"
"Unusual Absence from Sun Day Tribute, But Should Be Interpreted Carefully"
US Senior Official Assesses 'Kim Jong Un Remains Sole Leader'
North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un recently supervised an artillery drill, according to a report by the Korean Central News Agency on the 10th.
View original imageNorth Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un continues to remain out of public sight despite increasing rumors of his critical condition. Whenever speculation about his health arises, he has appeared unexpectedly in the past, leaving observers embarrassed, but recently North Korean media have only briefly reported indirect news about Kim’s activities, further fueling doubts. However, a high-ranking U.S. official publicly stated that Kim is still in good health, and some speculate that Kim may be timing a dramatic reappearance amid global attention.
On the 23rd, the North Korean Workers' Party organ Rodong Sinmun reported that Kim sent a reply message dated the 22nd expressing gratitude to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for sending a congratulatory message on the occasion of the 108th birthday of President Kim Il-sung (the Day of the Sun, April 15).
North Korean media have generally reported on Kim’s activities such as birthday gifts to exemplary citizens, expressions of thanks, and external congratulatory messages in a brief manner without photos or videos. This recent report follows the usual pattern of reply and congratulatory messages issued in Kim’s name. Through such indirect reports, Kim’s presence is only hinted at. However, there is no photographic or video evidence to confirm Kim’s condition, making it difficult to dispel rumors about his health.
Meanwhile, a senior U.S. official drew attention by stating that there has been no significant change in Kim’s military control. On the 22nd (local time), U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman John Hyten said in a press briefing, "We still estimate that he fully controls North Korea’s nuclear forces and military." This is interpreted as meaning that despite health controversies, Kim is still considered the top leader of North Korea.
However, Vice Chairman Hyten did not provide specific reasons or evidence for this estimate and maintained a cautious stance, saying, "We have nothing to confirm or deny regarding (Kim’s health rumors)." U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also took a cautious approach at a press conference held at the State Department on the same day, stating only that "we are closely monitoring the situation."
Kim previously disappeared from public view for about 40 days in 2014 before making a surprise appearance, so the prevailing assessment is that the 'critical condition' rumors should be approached with caution. There are even forecasts that Kim could appear as early as this weekend.
Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said, "Recently, North Korean residents have had opportunities to acquire information about external reports directly or indirectly," adding, "If rumors about the supreme leader’s health spread, internal unrest could occur." Professor Yang analyzed, "It is necessary to block unnecessary internal unrest, and Kim is likely to make a local leadership visit to demonstrate his vitality as early as this weekend or by early next week at the latest."
An official from the Ministry of Unification told reporters on the same day that Kim has been exchanging letters with other leaders until recently, which could be evidence that routine work is ongoing, as of the 23rd.
The Blue House stated on the 21st that some media reports about North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un's "health abnormalities" are unfounded, saying, "No unusual developments have been identified within North Korea so far." Earlier, the US CNN network reported on the 20th (local time), citing a US official, that the US government is monitoring information that "Chairman Kim is in serious danger after surgery."
The photo shows Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un as reported by Korean Central TV on the 12th. It covered the Workers' Party Political Bureau meeting presided over by Kim Jong-un on the 11th.
The Ministry of Unification also urged cautious interpretation regarding Kim’s first absence from the Day of the Sun visit to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, which triggered the recent critical condition rumors.
The ministry official said, "It is true that Kim’s absence from the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on the Day of the Sun is unusual," but added, "It is necessary to refer to and compare past cases."
He pointed out that during Kim Jong-il’s 17 years in power, he visited the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on the Day of the Sun only three times?in 2000, 2002, and 2008.
The official explained, "While this absence is the first since Kim Jong-un took power and can be seen as unusual, it is necessary to observe for some more time before considering it a significant anomaly."
Meanwhile, on the 23rd, Japanese media reported the possibility that Kim may have fled to his villa in Wonsan, Gangwon Province, avoiding the densely populated capital Pyongyang due to the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).
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The Sankei Shimbun cited South Korean intelligence sources, reporting that "since attending a Workers' Party Political Bureau meeting held in Pyongyang on the 11th, Kim has been staying with close aides around the Wonsan area." The Tokyo Shimbun also reported, citing multiple North Korea sources, that "Kim is staying at his Wonsan villa." The newspapers forecast that Kim’s 'telework' (remote work) at the Wonsan villa could be prolonged due to the prolonged COVID-19 situation.
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