Hot Potato 'Constitutional Amendment' in Blue House Cautious Mode... Turning Point for the '1987 System'

If Constitutional Amendment Discussions Begin, Issue Black Hole Poses Burden on Blue House Governance... 21st National Assembly Also Evaluates Timing for Amendment Talks

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] The long-standing issue in Korean politics, the 'end of the 1987 system,' has reached another turning point. The 21st general election, which resulted in a landslide victory for the Democratic Party of Korea, concluded with the ruling coalition securing nearly the constitutional amendment threshold (200 seats).

One of the biggest interests of the 21st National Assembly, which will begin on May 30, is constitutional amendment, but the Blue House is taking a cautious stance. This is a strategic consideration that comprehensively takes into account national issues and political realities, regardless of the necessity of constitutional amendment.

Looking at the seat distribution of the 21st National Assembly, the Democratic Party holds 163 seats, the Together Citizens' Party 17 seats, the Open Democratic Party 3 seats, the Justice Party 6 seats, and 1 independent (Representative Lee Yong-ho), totaling exactly 190 seats. Adding just 10 more lawmakers favorable to constitutional amendment theoretically makes constitutional revision possible.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The current constitution was amended in 1987, and 33 years have passed since then. Considering political, social, and economic changes, the point that the constitution should be changed to fit the times is something both ruling and opposition politicians and political scientists agree on. President Moon Jae-in also proposed a constitutional amendment plan based on a four-year single term and power decentralization ahead of the 2018 local elections. However, considering the timing, method, and driving force behind the amendment, the political situations in 2018 and 2020 inevitably differ.

At a New Year's press conference on January 14 this year, President Moon said, "Constitutional amendment contains the philosophy of myself and our government to fundamentally change our political structure and society," adding, "It is very regrettable that the plan to amend the constitution together with the local elections was aborted." In particular, President Moon drew a line by saying, "I think it is difficult for the president to have the driving force to push for constitutional amendment again."

President Moon has about two years left in his term. It is a tight period to respond to national issues such as the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and to handle pending state affairs. A senior Blue House official said, "Currently, we are in a period of extraordinary response related to the COVID-19 crisis," and refrained from commenting on whether to push for constitutional amendment.

From the Blue House's perspective, the constitutional amendment issue is burdensome because it can act as a 'black hole' that absorbs all other major issues. Professor Park Sang-chul of the Graduate School of Political Studies at Kyonggi University explained, "When the Blue House is politically weak, it talks about constitutional amendment, but when it is doing well, it does not necessarily bring it up," adding, "If the issue shifts to constitutional amendment discussions, it interferes with the president's state administration."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, Professor Park diagnosed, "Considering the 190 seats, constitutional amendment should be seen as a volcano that can erupt at any time." Representative Park Ji-won of the Minsheng Party also predicted in an interview with KBS Radio's 'Kim Kyung-rae's Strongest Current Affairs' on the 20th, "I believe President Moon will push for constitutional amendment to complete the Candlelight Revolution."

When a new National Assembly is inaugurated, it has become customary for the newly appointed Speaker of the National Assembly to express the will for constitutional amendment. Even if a constitutional amendment discussion body is formed at the National Assembly level, it rarely bears fruit because adjusting interests is not easy. In particular, perceptions of power structure reform differ depending on ruling and opposition parties and the next presidential candidates, and even lawmakers within the same party have different views. This means that a balance of political cost-benefit calculations must be achieved for constitutional amendment to take place.

Nevertheless, many experts believe the spark for constitutional amendment is still alive due to the political characteristics of the year 2020. Eom Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, said, "Putting aside immediate political costs and benefits, I think now is the right time for constitutional amendment discussions for the future of Korean democracy and the nation," adding, "If it passes into next year, the presidential election will be imminent, and it is uncertain how public sentiment will change."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.