Democratic Party Landslide Victory, Driving Moon Jae-in Government's Four-Power Diplomacy... Immediate Challenges Include Inter-Korean Relations and Stalled North Korea-US Talks
Strengthening ROK-US Alliance and Expanding ROK-China Exchanges... Cooling ROK-Japan Relations Amid Export Controls and GSOMIA Issues
30th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations Adds Focus to ROK-Russia Diplomacy

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] With the Democratic Party of Korea securing more than three-fifths of the total seats in the 21st National Assembly elections, the Moon Jae-in administration's diplomacy and security policies are expected to gain further momentum. As President Moon Jae-in declared his intention earlier this year to independently improve inter-Korean relations and strengthen the New Northern Policy, the framework of four-power diplomacy based on the "Korean Peninsula Peace Process" is also likely to become more solid.


Amid talks of a reshuffle in the diplomacy and security lineup responsible for the latter half of the Moon administration, the government is expected to leverage the ruling party's strong mandate to ultimately improve inter-Korean relations by strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance while seeking to improve relations with China. Subsequently, it plans to focus on curbing Japan's historical and security provocations while expanding exchanges with Russia on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations. The Democratic Party's foreign policy platform in the 21st general election also concentrated on the Korean Peninsula Peace Process, as well as the New Southern and New Northern policies.


However, there are many challenges to address immediately. To accelerate policy implementation, it is necessary to resolve the prolonged conflict over defense cost-sharing between South Korea and the U.S. and improve the frozen relationship with Japan. While expanding exchanges with China and Russia, who are voicing calls for easing sanctions on North Korea, the government must also focus on resuming the stalled North Korea-U.S. dialogue.


With the United States, the 11th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) on defense cost-sharing must be finalized first. Despite seven face-to-face negotiations, the South Korea-U.S. negotiation teams have failed to narrow their differences. Although a tentative agreement was reached among working-level officials at the end of last month, raising hopes for a final deal, it fell into deadlock again due to U.S. President Donald Trump's rejection. Some speculate that negotiations could be postponed until November, when the U.S. presidential election takes place.


The negotiation timeline remains uncertain due to differences in positions and unpaid leave issues. Through its diplomatic pledges to the U.S., the Democratic Party stated it would "develop the South Korea-U.S. alliance into a reciprocal and comprehensive alliance while deriving reasonable alternatives to current issues." The government and ruling party maintain that the defense cost-sharing, which amounts to six times last year's defense budget, is excessive. At the same time, they bear the responsibility to promptly end the unpaid leave of Korean workers employed by the U.S. Forces Korea, which began on the 1st. The Ministry of National Defense has announced plans to support Korean workers through special legislation but has yet to present a concrete solution.


Regarding China, the government is expected to focus on deepening the strategic cooperative partnership between South Korea and China. The goal is to restore economic exchanges that deteriorated due to the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system during the Park Geun-hye administration. However, although somewhat overshadowed by COVID-19, the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute remains a burden. Active exchanges with China could be viewed unfavorably by the U.S.


Moreover, the confrontational stance toward China contrasts sharply with the diplomatic approach toward Japan, raising concerns. Politics should stop at the border. South Korea-Japan relations deteriorated after the South Korean Supreme Court's ruling on compensation for forced labor during Japanese colonial rule led Japan to impose unilateral export restrictions, culminating in the termination of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) in November last year.


Through its pledges, the Democratic Party maintains a firm principle, stating it will "pursue resolution of historical issues between South Korea and Japan based on correct historical understanding and principles, while continuously expanding communication between government authorities and exchanges at the civilian level for future-oriented development."


With Russia marking the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year, the government plans to focus on expanding exchanges. The Democratic Party proposed pledges including strengthening the South Korea-Russia strategic cooperative relationship, continuously expanding high-level exchanges, and promoting the "9 Bridges Action Plan." This reflects the intention to support the Blue House's New Northern Policy. Through this, the government and ruling party aim to secure Russia's support for the Korean Peninsula Peace Process.


An official source in diplomacy said, "The emergence of a dominant ruling party has changed the political landscape and created an environment strongly supporting the government's policy of the 'Korean Peninsula Peace Process.' It is necessary to achieve results in four-power diplomacy with consistent voices and direction, further solidify the actively led New Southern Policy, and devise strategies to garner international support."



[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

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