Democratic Party '130 seats + α', United Party '110 seats + α'

If the proportional representation yields 17 seats, a single-party majority is expected
United Party lowers its target, decides to expel Cha Myung-jin

Lee Nak-yeon, the Democratic Party candidate for Jongno District, is appealing for support from residents in Gugidong, Jongno District, Seoul on the 12th. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporter Kiho Sung] Two days before the April 15 general election, the Democratic Party of Korea projected securing '130 seats + α (alpha)' out of 253 constituencies, while the United Future Party expected '110 seats + α'. For proportional representation, the Together Citizens Party is anticipated to win 17 seats, and the Future Korea Party 15 seats out of 47.

The Democratic Party judged that as the voting day approaches, public opinion favoring 'supporting the ruling party' due to the COVID-19 pandemic has matured. Lee Geun-hyung, chairman of the Democratic Party’s Strategic Planning Committee, along with ruling party officials, expect 130 seats + α based on constituencies. If the proportional party Together Citizens Party secures the expected 17 proportional seats, achieving an outright majority (151 seats) is within reach.

By region, in the metropolitan area, the goal is to add more than 10 seats to the current 81 seats. In Gangwon Province, although currently holding only one incumbent seat, the number of competitive districts is increasing, and there is a forecast that they could win three or more seats if conditions are favorable.

In the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK) region, which holds 40 seats with 8 secured, it is expected that the early difficulties in the election will be overcome and the status quo maintained. Conversely, in Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK), which hold 2 seats, it is considered difficult to guarantee victory in any district. Notably, the incumbent districts of Daegu Suseong-gap (Kim Boo-kyum) and Buk-gu-eul (Hong Eui-rak) are also assessed as being at a disadvantage in close contests, reflecting the frozen sentiment of TK voters.

In the Honam region, including Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk, most of the 28 constituencies are considered favorable, with three districts engaged in fierce competition. In the previous general election, the Democratic Party only secured 3 seats in Honam, losing to the People’s Party and independent candidates.

Additionally, in Chungnam, where 11 seats are contested, the Democratic Party expects to win more than 7 seats, and in Chungbuk, where 8 districts are competitive, at least 3 victories are forecasted. The entire Chungcheong region shows a close contest pattern, but in Daejeon, the party expects to sweep all 7 seats. Furthermore, in Jeju, a clean sweep of all 3 districts is anticipated.

Hwang Kyo-ahn, the Future United Party candidate for Jongno District, is appealing for support at the "April 15 General Election National Appeal Focused Campaign" held at Cheonggye Plaza in Seoul on the 12th. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

The United Future Party, struggling with various verbal misconduct scandals, has lowered its initial target of 130 seats. The party reports 27 strongholds and 28 competitive districts out of 121 seats in the metropolitan area. However, concerns are high that the late-emerging scandal involving candidate Cha Myung-jin in Bucheon-si B, Gyeonggi Province, could shake metropolitan voter sentiment.

In Seoul, the three districts considered battlegrounds by both the Democratic Party and the United Future Party are Dongjak-eul (Lee Soo-jin, Na Kyung-won), Gwangjin-eul (Ko Min-jung, Oh Se-hoon), and Songpa-eul (Choi Jae-sung, Bae Hyun-jin). These areas have shown fierce competition in opinion polls, and the results will only be known once the ballot boxes are opened.

However, the United Future Party expects to maintain its current support levels outside the metropolitan area. In the TK region, a clean sweep of all 25 seats is considered possible. In PK, more than 30 out of 40 seats are classified as competitive or leaning competitive. Additionally, in Chungnam’s 11 seats, 7 are expected to be won, and in Chungbuk, 6 out of 8 competitive districts are classified as favorable or leaning favorable.

As the election nears its end, the polarization toward the two major parties intensifies, leading minor parties to place their hopes more on winning proportional representation seats than constituency victories.

The Minsheng Party forecasts winning 3 to 5 constituency seats and 10 proportional seats. The Justice Party, viewing Goyang-gap in Gyeonggi (Sim Sang-jung) as leaning competitive and Yeonsu-eul in Incheon (Lee Jeong-mi) as competitive, aims for 2 to 3 constituency seats and 8 to 9 proportional seats. The People’s Party, having not fielded constituency candidates, expects to secure at least 5 proportional seats.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.